ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21

Middlesbrough U21 Home · Elo 1,499
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Derby County U21 Away · Elo 1,441
Heritage Park, Bishop Auckland Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Derby County U21 win
Middlesbrough U21 win
37.8%
Draw
23.2%
Derby County U21 winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Middlesbrough U21 history37 matches
Derby County U21 history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Derby County U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Middlesbrough U21 are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,441. On rating alone Middlesbrough U21 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Middlesbrough U21 score more

    1.73 goals a game over 37 matches for Middlesbrough U21, against 1.44 over 39 for Derby County U21.

  • Middlesbrough U21 concede fewer

    Middlesbrough U21 concede 1.32 a game, Derby County U21 2.18.

  • Derby County U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Middlesbrough U21 matches, against 67% for Derby County U21. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.2
ELO
1441.2
37
ELO · Matches
39
1499.2
Current Team ELO
1441.2
1441.2
Current Opponent ELO
1499.2
58.06
Current ELO Difference
-58.06
0.58
Expected score
0.42
37
History Matches
39
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.15
Overperformance
45.02
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
3.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
2.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
3.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.91
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
39
1.32
PPG
0.82
37.8%
Win rate
17.9%
18.9%
Draw rate
28.2%
43.2%
Loss rate
53.8%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
20
1.31
PPG
0.60
37.5%
Win rate
10.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
60.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
65.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
16
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.44
75.7%
Scoring rate
71.8%
54.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.75
62.5%
Scoring rate
95.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
95.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
39
1.73
Goals Mean
1.44
2.05
Goals Std
1.58
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
2.18
78.4%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.85
87.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
39
1.32
Conceded Mean
2.18
1.07
Conceded Std
1.62
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.9%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.06
4.86
Stability score
9.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
9
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
44.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.56
8
Trailing Matches
12
12.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.28
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.33
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
17
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.65
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.50
67.15
Portability Score
70.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO58.06
PPG0.50
GF0.29
GA-0.86
PPG-3.00
PPG0.71
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate32.5%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.94
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.86
Conceded Std-0.55
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-4.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.34
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate34.1%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-3.48
Rest days1.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO58.06
Current Opponent ELO-58.06
Current ELO Difference116.1
Expected score0.17
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Middlesbrough U21

W
Middlesbrough U213–2Valencia U213 Nov · home
Pick: Middlesbrough U21 59% · hit
L
Middlesbrough U211–2Tottenham Hotspur U2125 Oct · home
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur U21 44% · hit
L
Boreham Wood7–1Middlesbrough U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 42% · hit
L
Everton U212–1Middlesbrough U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Everton U21 49% · hit
L
AFC Bournemouth U213–1Middlesbrough U2131 Aug · away
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 64% · hit

Derby County U21

L
Hull City U211–0Derby County U212 Nov · away
Pick: Hull City U21 63% · hit
L
Derby County U213–4Norwich City U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Derby County U21 41% · missed
W
Birmingham City U210–4Derby County U2119 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham City U21 50% · missed
D
Derby County U214–4West Bromwich Albion U2131 Aug · home
Pick: Derby County U21 53% · missed
W
Reading U211–3Derby County U2124 Aug · away
Pick: Reading U21 40% · missed

About this match

Middlesbrough U21 and Derby County U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Heritage Park, Bishop Auckland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Middlesbrough U21 win 37.8%, draw 23.2%, Derby County U21 win 39.0%. The pick is Derby County U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.