ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

Mika vs Shirak II

Mika Home · Elo 1,413
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shirak II Away · Elo 1,396
MIKA Stadium, Yerevan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mika win
Mika winPick
53.1%
Draw
19.2%
Shirak II win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%
No37.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Mika history45 matches
Shirak II history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mika are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,413 against 1,396. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 45 matches for Mika, against 1.16 over 45 for Shirak II.

  • Defences are close

    Mika concede 2.33 a game, Shirak II 2.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Mika matches, against 62% for Shirak II. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mika
Shirak II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1412.9
ELO
1395.8
45
ELO · Matches
45
1412.9
Current Team ELO
1395.8
1395.8
Current Opponent ELO
1412.9
17.10
Current ELO Difference
-17.10
0.52
Expected score
0.48
45
History Matches
45
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.11
43.66
Overperformance
42.23
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.30
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
45
0.87
PPG
0.82
22.2%
Win rate
17.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.9%
57.8%
Loss rate
53.3%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
0.74
PPG
0.91
17.4%
Win rate
22.7%
21.7%
Draw rate
22.7%
60.9%
Loss rate
54.5%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
95.5%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.15
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.16
64.4%
Scoring rate
64.4%
57.8%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.14
56.5%
Scoring rate
63.6%
47.8%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
45
1.16
Goals Mean
1.16
1.09
Goals Std
1.15
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.33
Goals against per game
2.49
88.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.96
Goals against per game
3.05
82.6%
Conceding rate
86.4%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
45
2.33
Conceded Mean
2.49
1.69
Conceded Std
2.17
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.2%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
3.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
45
0.89
Result entropy
0.91
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.56
11.43
Stability score
8.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
43
5
Lead Matches
11
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
27.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.48
23
Trailing Matches
19
17.4%
Non-loss rate
5.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.07
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.90
Rest days
81.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.70
Portability PPG Range
0.76
61.25
Portability Score
61.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO17.10
PPG0.04
GF0.00
GA-0.16
PPG0.50
PPG-0.17
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score2.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate32.7%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate12.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score-0.34
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO17.10
Current Opponent ELO-17.10
Current ELO Difference34.20
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mika

W
Ararat II1–3Mika2 Nov · away
Pick: Mika 49% · hit
W
Mika2–0Araks Ararat20 Oct · home
Pick: Araks Ararat 44% · missed
L
Andranik2–1Mika12 Oct · away
Pick: Andranik 79% · hit
W
Mika3–2Sardarapat 28 Oct · home
Pick: Mika 60% · hit
D
Ararat-Armenia II1–1Mika1 Sep · away
Pick: Mika 45% · missed

Shirak II

L
Lernayin Artsakh5–0Shirak II20 Oct · away
Pick: Lernayin Artsakh 42% · hit
L
Shirak II3–4BKMA II14 Oct · home
Pick: BKMA II 78% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mika and Shirak II meet in First League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at MIKA Stadium, Yerevan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Mika win 53.1%, draw 19.2%, Shirak II win 27.8%. The pick is Mika win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 62.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.