ScoreProb
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico Round 11 2026

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Acambaro

Mineros de Fresnillo Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Acambaro Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mineros de Fresnillo win
Mineros de Fresnillo winPick
52.6%
Draw
21.6%
Acambaro win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Mineros de Fresnillo history35 matches
Acambaro history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mineros de Fresnillo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,513 against 1,516. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 35 matches for Mineros de Fresnillo, against 1.46 over 24 for Acambaro.

  • Defences are close

    Mineros de Fresnillo concede 1.74 a game, Acambaro 1.75.

  • Mineros de Fresnillo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Mineros de Fresnillo matches, against 54% for Acambaro. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mineros de Fresnillo
Acambaro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.3
ELO
1516.0
35
ELO · Matches
24
1513.3
Current Team ELO
1516.0
1516.0
Current Opponent ELO
1513.3
-2.70
Current ELO Difference
2.70
0.50
Expected score
0.50
35
History Matches
24
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.43
Overperformance
50.98
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.26
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.86
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
24
1.29
PPG
1.46
34.3%
Win rate
41.7%
25.7%
Draw rate
20.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
14
1.80
PPG
1.07
53.3%
Win rate
28.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
26.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
15
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
1.46
77.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
62.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.43
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
80.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
24
1.57
Goals Mean
1.46
1.44
Goals Std
1.71
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.74
Goals against per game
1.75
80.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.93
Goals against per game
2.07
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
35
History Matches
24
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.42
Conceded Std
1.61
54.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.93
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
24
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.34
1.44
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
24
11
Lead Matches
6
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.72
11
Trailing Matches
9
18.2%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
206.0
Rest days
222.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.44
59.39
Portability Score
69.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.70
PPG-0.17
GF0.11
GA-0.01
PPG0.73
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.05
History Matches11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-2.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.31
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-9.92
Rest days-16.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-2.70
Current Opponent ELO2.70
Current ELO Difference-5.40
Expected score-0.01
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mineros de Fresnillo

L
Dragones de Oaxaca2–0Mineros de Fresnillo1 Nov · away
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 46% · missed
W
Mineros de Fresnillo4–1Calor de San Pedro25 Oct · home
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 36% · missed
D
Mineros de Fresnillo0–0Guerreros17 Oct · home
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Acambaro

W
Correcaminos UAT II0–2Acambaro24 Oct · away
Pick: Correcaminos UAT II 51% · missed
W
Halcones Negros0–6Acambaro18 Oct · away
Pick: Halcones Negros 36% · missed
W
Acambaro8–0Cañoneros Marina30 Aug · home
Pick: Acambaro 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mineros de Fresnillo and Acambaro meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mineros de Fresnillo win 52.6%, draw 21.6%, Acambaro win 25.8%. The pick is Mineros de Fresnillo win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.