ScoreProb
Primera Premier Mexico Round 11 2026

Montañeses vs Los Cabos United

Montañeses Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Los Cabos United Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Montañeses win
Montañeses winPick
50.8%
Draw
27.3%
Los Cabos United win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Montañeses history34 matches
Los Cabos United history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Montañeses are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montañeses are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,491. On rating alone Montañeses would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 34 matches for Montañeses, against 1.55 over 29 for Los Cabos United.

  • Montañeses concede fewer

    Montañeses concede 1.12 a game, Los Cabos United 1.41.

  • Los Cabos United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Montañeses matches, against 55% for Los Cabos United. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montañeses
Los Cabos United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.6
ELO
1491.3
34
ELO · Matches
29
1523.6
Current Team ELO
1491.3
1491.3
Current Opponent ELO
1523.6
32.36
Current ELO Difference
-32.36
0.55
Expected score
0.45
34
History Matches
29
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.15
Overperformance
50.37
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
29
1.53
PPG
1.55
44.1%
Win rate
48.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
10.3%
35.3%
Loss rate
41.4%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
11
2.06
PPG
0.91
64.7%
Win rate
27.3%
11.8%
Draw rate
9.1%
23.5%
Loss rate
63.6%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
17
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.55
70.6%
Scoring rate
72.4%
41.2%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.00
82.4%
Scoring rate
63.6%
41.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
34
History Matches
29
1.47
Goals Mean
1.55
1.38
Goals Std
1.33
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
44.1%
Scored 2+ rate
48.3%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
1.41
61.8%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.73
52.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
34
History Matches
29
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.16
Conceded Std
1.13
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
29
0.96
Result entropy
0.87
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.74
4.06
Stability score
13.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
27
10
Lead Matches
11
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.76
8
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
224.0
Rest days
210.6
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.16
Portability PPG Range
1.14
86.35
Portability Score
46.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.36
PPG-0.02
GF-0.08
GA-0.30
PPG1.15
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches5
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-9.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate17.3%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score39.55
Rest days13.38
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO32.36
Current Opponent ELO-32.36
Current ELO Difference64.73
Expected score0.09
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montañeses

L
H2O Purepechas2–1Montañeses1 Nov · away
Pick: H2O Purepechas 35% · hit
L
Montañeses0–3Lobos ULMX25 Oct · home
Pick: Montañeses 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Los Cabos United

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Montañeses and Los Cabos United meet in Primera Premier on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Montañeses win 50.8%, draw 27.3%, Los Cabos United win 21.9%. The pick is Montañeses win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.