ScoreProb
Primera Division El Salvador Round 19 2026

Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa

Municipal Limeño Home · Elo 1,539
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletico Balboa Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Municipal Limeño win
Municipal Limeño winPick
39.0%
Draw
32.5%
Atletico Balboa win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

Municipal Limeño history80 matches
Atletico Balboa history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Municipal Limeño are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,539 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 80 matches for Municipal Limeño, against 1.33 over 6 for Atletico Balboa.

  • Defences are close

    Municipal Limeño concede 1.10 a game, Atletico Balboa 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Municipal Limeño matches, against 33% for Atletico Balboa. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Municipal Limeño
Atletico Balboa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.1
ELO
1515.2
80
ELO · Matches
6
1539.1
Current Team ELO
1515.2
1515.2
Current Opponent ELO
1539.1
23.87
Current ELO Difference
-23.87
0.53
Expected score
0.47
80
History Matches
6
0.02
Residual Mean
0.13
51.56
Overperformance
53.03
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
6
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
1.33
1.20
Goals against per game
1.17
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.17
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.46
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
6
1.48
PPG
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
27.5%
Draw rate
50.0%
32.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
3
1.74
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
23.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
26.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
38
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.33
73.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.34
Goals for per game
2.33
76.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
6
1.23
Goals Mean
1.33
1.11
Goals Std
1.37
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
32.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.17
65.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
57.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.17
83.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
6
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.06
Conceded Std
1.46
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
6
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.21
1.07
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
6
26
Lead Matches
0
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.79
Lead Points Retention
—
19
Trailing Matches
1
5.3%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
100.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
4
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.24
Portability PPG Std
—
0.63
Portability PPG Range
—
67.64
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.87
PPG-0.03
GF-0.11
GA-0.07
PPG-0.33
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches74
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate42.1%
Failed-to-score rate23.7%
History Matches74
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches74
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches74
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-6.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches73
Lead Matches26
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate-0.95
Trailing Win Rate-1.00
Halftime Coverage Matches73
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest History Matches34
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO23.87
Current Opponent ELO-23.87
Current ELO Difference47.74
Expected score0.07
History Matches74
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-1.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Municipal Limeño

D
Isidro Metapán1–1Municipal Limeño1 Nov · away
Pick: Isidro Metapán 48% · missed
D
Municipal Limeño3–3Cacahuatique25 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Limeño 45% · missed
W
Inter1–2Municipal Limeño17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 47% · missed
L
Platense2–1Municipal Limeño4 Oct · away
Pick: Platense 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atletico Balboa

W
Atletico Balboa1–0Alianza1 Nov · home
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · hit
W
Fuerte San Francisco1–2Atletico Balboa25 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 39% · hit
D
Atletico Balboa2–2Águila18 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · missed
L
Inca Aruba1–0Atletico Balboa9 Sep · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 60% · missed
L
Alianza2–0Atletico Balboa30 Aug · away
Pick: Alianza 43% · hit

About this match

Municipal Limeño and Atletico Balboa meet in Primera Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Municipal Limeño win 39.0%, draw 32.5%, Atletico Balboa win 28.4%. The pick is Municipal Limeño win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.