ScoreProb
3. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Næsby vs ASA Aarhus

Næsby Home · Elo 1,567
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ASA Aarhus Away · Elo 1,573
ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Næsby win
Næsby winPick
57.4%
Draw
19.8%
ASA Aarhus win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%

How much we know

Næsby history66 matches
ASA Aarhus history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Næsby are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,567 against 1,573. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Næsby score more

    2.11 goals a game over 66 matches for Næsby, against 1.88 over 33 for ASA Aarhus.

  • ASA Aarhus concede fewer

    Næsby concede 1.55 a game, ASA Aarhus 1.15.

  • Næsby games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Næsby matches, against 58% for ASA Aarhus. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Næsby
ASA Aarhus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1566.9
ELO
1573.3
66
ELO · Matches
33
1566.9
Current Team ELO
1573.3
1573.3
Current Opponent ELO
1566.9
-6.41
Current ELO Difference
6.41
0.49
Expected score
0.51
66
History Matches
33
0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
53.89
Overperformance
56.98
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
33
1.55
PPG
1.91
43.9%
Win rate
54.5%
22.7%
Draw rate
27.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
18.2%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
47.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
16
1.85
PPG
1.69
54.5%
Win rate
43.8%
21.2%
Draw rate
37.5%
24.2%
Loss rate
18.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
33
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
1.88
80.3%
Scoring rate
87.9%
62.1%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.45
Goals for per game
1.31
90.9%
Scoring rate
81.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
33
2.11
Goals Mean
1.88
1.76
Goals Std
1.32
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
87.9%
59.1%
Scored 2+ rate
51.5%
31.8%
Scored 3+ rate
30.3%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.15
77.3%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.06
72.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
33
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.26
Conceded Std
1.13
47.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.81
3.13
Stability score
9.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
33
23
Lead Matches
9
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
7
22.2%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.90
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.50
66.57
Portability Score
69.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.41
PPG-0.36
GF0.23
GA0.39
PPG0.00
PPG0.16
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate7.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.86
History Matches33
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches33
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score-6.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-2.97
Rest days-3.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches29
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-6.41
Current Opponent ELO6.41
Current ELO Difference-12.83
Expected score-0.02
History Matches33
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Næsby

L
Brønshøj2–1Næsby31 Oct · away
Pick: Næsby 43% · missed
L
Næsby1–2Holbæk B&I24 Oct · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 43% · hit
D
Næsby2–2Vanløse17 Oct · home
Pick: Næsby 38% · missed
L
Holbæk B&I3–2Næsby29 Aug · away
Pick: Holbæk B&I 59% · hit
W
Munkebo0–5Næsby25 Aug · away
Pick: Næsby 56% · hit

ASA Aarhus

D
ASA Aarhus2–2Frem31 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Aarhus 45% · missed
L
Vanløse1–0ASA Aarhus24 Oct · away
Pick: Vanløse 58% · hit
L
ASA Aarhus1–2Sundby17 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Aarhus 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Næsby and ASA Aarhus meet in 3. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Næsby win 57.4%, draw 19.8%, ASA Aarhus win 22.8%. The pick is Næsby win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.0%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.