ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone H Italy Group H - 11 2026

Nardò vs Turris

Nardò Home · Elo 1,540
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Turris Away · Elo 1,445
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nardò win
Nardò winPick
72.6%
Draw
15.8%
Turris win
11.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%
No53.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Nardò history49 matches
Turris history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Nardò are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nardò are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,445. On rating alone Nardò would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Nardò score far more

    1.14 goals a game over 49 matches for Nardò, against 0.67 over 6 for Turris.

  • Nardò concede fewer

    Nardò concede 1.00 a game, Turris 3.17.

  • Turris games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Nardò matches, against 83% for Turris. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nardò
Turris
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.3
ELO
1444.9
49
ELO · Matches
6
1540.3
Current Team ELO
1444.9
1444.9
Current Opponent ELO
1540.3
95.34
Current ELO Difference
-95.34
0.63
Expected score
0.37
49
History Matches
6
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.46
52.53
Overperformance
39.47
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.46
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
6
1.70
PPG
0.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.67
0.70
Goals against per game
3.17
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.17
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.07
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
6
1.47
PPG
0.00
38.8%
Win rate
0.0%
30.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
30.6%
Loss rate
100.0%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
34.7%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
3
2.09
PPG
0.00
60.9%
Win rate
0.0%
26.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
13.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
23
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
0.67
65.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
36.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.00
82.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
34.8%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
6
1.14
Goals Mean
0.67
1.09
Goals Std
0.47
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
3.17
57.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.65
Goals against per game
3.67
43.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
6
1.00
Conceded Mean
3.17
1.05
Conceded Std
1.07
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
3.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
6
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.12
0.59
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
6
15
Lead Matches
0
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.82
Lead Points Retention
—
11
Trailing Matches
5
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.17
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.83
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.8
Rest days
617.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.18
Portability PPG Std
—
0.36
Portability PPG Range
—
73.68
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO95.34
PPG1.47
GF0.48
GA-2.17
PPG2.09
PPG1.40
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches43
Clean-sheet rate42.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate56.5%
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches43
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.62
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate32.7%
Scored 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Std0.57
History Matches43
Conceded Mean-2.17
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.67
Conceded 3+ rate-0.59
Venue Conceded Mean-3.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches43
Result entropy0.99
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-99.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches15
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.84
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-435.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.45
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO95.34
Current Opponent ELO-95.34
Current ELO Difference190.7
Expected score0.27
History Matches43
Residual Mean0.49
Overperformance13.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nardò

L
Nardò1–3Fidelis Andria25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
L
USD Palmese4–2Nardò4 Oct · away
Pick: Nardò 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Turris

L
Turris1–2Virtus Francavilla1 Nov · home
Pick: Virtus Francavilla 60% · hit
W
Real Forio 20141–2Turris18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Forio 2014 40% · missed
D
Gladiator1–1Turris4 Oct · away
Pick: Gladiator 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nardò and Turris meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nardò win 72.6%, draw 15.8%, Turris win 11.6%. The pick is Nardò win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.