Navalcarnero vs Real Betis
Match result probability Model pick: Real Betis win
Navalcarnero win
21.7%
Draw
26.8%
Real Betis winPick
51.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.3%
No47.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
How much we know
Navalcarnero history51 matches
Real Betis history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Real Betis
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.
Why Real Betis are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Betis are rated 149 Elo points higher
Elo 1,655 against 1,507. On rating alone Real Betis would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.
-
Real Betis score more
1.25 goals a game over 51 matches for Navalcarnero, against 1.77 over 95 for Real Betis.
-
Defences are close
Navalcarnero concede 1.18 a game, Real Betis 1.24.
-
Real Betis games more often go over 2.5 goals
47% of Navalcarnero matches, against 59% for Real Betis. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Betis@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1506.7
ELO
1655.5
51
ELO · Matches
95
1506.7
Current Team ELO
1655.5
1655.5
Current Opponent ELO
1506.7
-148.8
Current ELO Difference
148.8
0.30
Expected score
0.70
51
History Matches
95
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.54
Overperformance
56.42
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
95
1.47
PPG
1.76
41.2%
Win rate
49.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
27.4%
35.3%
Loss rate
23.2%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
49
2.19
PPG
1.63
65.4%
Win rate
44.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
11.5%
Loss rate
26.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
26
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.77
66.7%
Scoring rate
88.4%
49.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.69
80.8%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.7%
BTTS rate
65.3%
51
History Matches
95
1.25
Goals Mean
1.77
1.13
Goals Std
1.22
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
13.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.24
70.6%
Conceding rate
71.6%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.29
65.4%
Conceding rate
75.5%
51
History Matches
95
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.04
Conceded Std
1.19
31.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.6%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
95
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.30
Stability score
5.19
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
95
13
Lead Matches
34
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.79
12
Trailing Matches
25
16.7%
Non-loss rate
48.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
193.3
Rest days
78.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
27
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.96
33
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
17
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.90
62.42
Portability Score
62.93
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-148.8
PPG-0.29
GF-0.51
GA-0.07
PPG0.56
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate21.8%
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-44
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-2.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-21
Lead Win Rate3.4%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score-0.51
Rest days114.4
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-27
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Current Team ELO-148.8
Current Opponent ELO148.8
Current ELO Difference-297.5
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Navalcarnero
W
Navalcarnero3–1Atlético Paso1 Nov · home
Pick: Navalcarnero 40% · hit W
Numancia2–3Navalcarnero24 Oct · away
Pick: Numancia 60% · missed D
Salamanca UDS1–1Navalcarnero18 Oct · away
Pick: Salamanca UDS 41% · missed W
RSD Alcalá1–3Navalcarnero4 Oct · away
Pick: RSD Alcalá 52% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Betis
L
Borussia Dortmund2–1Real Betis4 Nov · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 40% · hit W
Real Betis2–1Malaga31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 63% · hit D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed W
Real Betis1–0Feyenoord21 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 51% · hit L
Real Betis2–5Barcelona17 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona 63% · hit About this match
Navalcarnero and Real Betis meet in Copa del Rey on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Navalcarnero win 21.7%, draw 26.8%, Real Betis win 51.6%. The pick is Real Betis win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.