ScoreProb
WE League Japan Round 8 2026

Nojima Stella W vs Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

Nojima Stella W Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W Away · Elo 1,592
Sagamihara Gion Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win
Nojima Stella W win
29.4%
Draw
30.3%
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Nojima Stella W history34 matches
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are rated 107 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,592 against 1,485. On rating alone Tokyo Verdy Beleza W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W score more

    1.35 goals a game over 34 matches for Nojima Stella W, against 2.03 over 40 for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W.

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W concede fewer

    Nojima Stella W concede 1.53 a game, Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 0.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Nojima Stella W matches, against 53% for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nojima Stella W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.7
ELO
1591.9
34
ELO · Matches
40
1484.7
Current Team ELO
1591.9
1591.9
Current Opponent ELO
1484.7
-107.2
Current ELO Difference
107.2
0.35
Expected score
0.65
34
History Matches
40
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.12
48.66
Overperformance
57.74
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
40
1.24
PPG
2.08
35.3%
Win rate
65.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
12.5%
47.1%
Loss rate
22.5%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
19
1.29
PPG
2.05
41.2%
Win rate
63.2%
5.9%
Draw rate
15.8%
52.9%
Loss rate
21.1%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
17
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
2.03
70.6%
Scoring rate
77.5%
41.2%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.68
70.6%
Scoring rate
78.9%
35.3%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
40
1.35
Goals Mean
2.03
1.21
Goals Std
1.72
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
20.6%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
0.85
64.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.35
Goals against per game
0.95
58.8%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
40
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.50
Conceded Std
0.76
52.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
40
0.94
Result entropy
0.80
2.32
Goal Difference Std
2.08
6.39
Stability score
20.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
40
11
Lead Matches
19
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
7
8.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
17
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.50
88.00
Portability Score
70.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-107.2
PPG-0.84
GF-0.67
GA0.68
PPG0.00
PPG-0.76
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.68
Conceded Std0.74
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-13.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score17.14
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.98
Current Team ELO-107.2
Current Opponent ELO107.2
Current ELO Difference-214.4
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nojima Stella W

D
JEF United W0–0Nojima Stella W31 Oct · away
Pick: Nojima Stella W 40% · missed
D
Vegalta Sendai W0–0Nojima Stella W24 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 40% · missed
W
Nojima Stella W1–0Albirex Niigata W21 Oct · home
Pick: Nojima Stella W 47% · hit
D
Cerezo Osaka W2–2Nojima Stella W18 Oct · away
Pick: Nojima Stella W 37% · missed
L
Urawa Reds W5–1Nojima Stella W30 Aug · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 53% · hit

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W2–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W31 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit
L
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W1–2Cerezo Osaka W28 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 65% · missed
W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W4–1Elfen Saitama W24 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 74% · hit
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W2–3Tokyo Verdy Beleza W18 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 44% · hit
W
Parceiro Nagano W1–4Tokyo Verdy Beleza W29 Aug · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit

About this match

Nojima Stella W and Tokyo Verdy Beleza W meet in WE League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Sagamihara Gion Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nojima Stella W win 29.4%, draw 30.3%, Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win 40.2%. The pick is Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.