ScoreProb
Kvindeliga Denmark Round 14 2026

Nordsjælland W vs ASA Aarhus W

Nordsjælland W Home · Elo 1,540
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
ASA Aarhus W Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nordsjælland W win
Nordsjælland W winPick
77.2%
Draw
10.9%
ASA Aarhus W win
11.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.1%
Under 2.522.9%

How much we know

Nordsjælland W history43 matches
ASA Aarhus W history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Nordsjælland W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nordsjælland W are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,493. On rating alone Nordsjælland W would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.95 goals a game over 43 matches for Nordsjælland W, against 1.91 over 11 for ASA Aarhus W.

  • Nordsjælland W concede fewer

    Nordsjælland W concede 1.21 a game, ASA Aarhus W 1.91.

  • ASA Aarhus W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Nordsjælland W matches, against 82% for ASA Aarhus W. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nordsjælland W
ASA Aarhus W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.2
ELO
1493.1
43
ELO · Matches
11
1540.2
Current Team ELO
1493.1
1493.1
Current Opponent ELO
1540.2
47.18
Current ELO Difference
-47.18
0.57
Expected score
0.43
43
History Matches
11
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.07
Overperformance
49.17
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
2.30
Goals for per game
1.70
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
11
1.47
PPG
1.36
39.5%
Win rate
36.4%
27.9%
Draw rate
27.3%
32.6%
Loss rate
36.4%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
46.5%
Over 3.5 rate
72.7%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
5
1.57
PPG
1.00
47.6%
Win rate
20.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
38.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
21
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.91
67.4%
Scoring rate
81.8%
51.2%
BTTS rate
81.8%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.40
71.4%
Scoring rate
60.0%
52.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
3.25
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
43
History Matches
11
1.95
Goals Mean
1.91
2.00
Goals Std
1.50
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
53.5%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
30.2%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.91
72.1%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.00
76.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
11
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.11
Conceded Std
1.31
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
11
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.34
0.93
Stability score
0.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
11
17
Lead Matches
4
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
6
23.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
20
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
3.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.96
59.11
Portability Score
50.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.18
PPG0.10
GF0.04
GA-0.70
PPG1.00
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.27
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches32
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score8.20
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.23
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO47.18
Current Opponent ELO-47.18
Current ELO Difference94.36
Expected score0.13
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nordsjælland W

L
FC Copenhagen W2–1Nordsjælland W31 Oct · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 67% · missed
W
Nordsjælland W5–0AGF W27 Oct · home
Pick: Nordsjælland W 78% · hit
D
Midtjylland W0–0Nordsjælland W18 Oct · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 53% · missed
D
Nordsjælland W2–2Køge W4 Oct · home
Pick: Køge W 42% · missed
W
Nordsjælland W4–0KoldingQ W1 Sep · home
Pick: Nordsjælland W 79% · hit

ASA Aarhus W

W
ASA Aarhus W1–0KoldingQ W31 Oct · home
Pick: KoldingQ W 45% · missed
W
Odense Q W0–1ASA Aarhus W25 Oct · away
Pick: Odense Q W 58% · missed
W
AGF W1–3ASA Aarhus W17 Oct · away
Pick: ASA Aarhus W 47% · hit
W
ASA Aarhus W2–1Fortuna Hjørring W29 Aug · home
Pick: Fortuna Hjørring W 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nordsjælland W and ASA Aarhus W meet in Kvindeliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nordsjælland W win 77.2%, draw 10.9%, ASA Aarhus W win 11.9%. The pick is Nordsjælland W win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.1%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.