Nsuopun Fidelity vs King Faisal
Match result probability Model pick: King Faisal win
Nsuopun Fidelity win
32.7%
Draw
30.8%
King Faisal winPick
36.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.5%
No51.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%
How much we know
Nsuopun Fidelity history9 matches
King Faisal history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours King Faisal
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 7 h ahead3 Nov · 07:22 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why King Faisal are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,508 against 1,526. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.22 goals a game over 9 matches for Nsuopun Fidelity, against 1.25 over 12 for King Faisal.
-
King Faisal concede fewer
Nsuopun Fidelity concede 1.11 a game, King Faisal 0.67.
-
Nsuopun Fidelity games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Nsuopun Fidelity matches, against 33% for King Faisal. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
King Faisal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1507.9
ELO
1526.3
9
ELO · Matches
12
1507.9
Current Team ELO
1526.3
1526.3
Current Opponent ELO
1507.9
-18.45
Current ELO Difference
18.45
0.47
Expected score
0.53
9
History Matches
12
0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
51.68
Overperformance
54.10
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
9
Matches
10
1.56
PPG
2.10
1.22
Goals for per game
1.40
1.11
Goals against per game
0.50
44.4%
Win rate
60.0%
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.03
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
9
Matches
12
1.56
PPG
1.75
44.4%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals 100
5
Matches
6
2.60
PPG
1.83
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
5
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.33
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
9
History Matches
12
1.22
Goals Mean
1.25
1.03
Goals Std
1.09
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
0.67
77.8%
Conceding rate
58.3%
0.60
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
9
History Matches
12
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.87
Conceded Std
0.62
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
8.3%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
9
History Matches
12
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.19
3.44
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
6
Eligible Matches
9
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
1
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
173.0
Rest days
173.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
3
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
5
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
9
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.45
PPG-0.19
GF-0.03
GA0.44
PPG0.77
PPG0.00
PPG-0.54
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-18.45
Current Opponent ELO18.45
Current ELO Difference-36.91
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-2.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nsuopun Fidelity
L
Ebony FC1–0Nsuopun Fidelity31 Oct · away
Pick: Ebony FC 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
King Faisal
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Nsuopun Fidelity and King Faisal meet in Division One League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:22 UTC: Nsuopun Fidelity win 32.7%, draw 30.8%, King Faisal win 36.5%. The pick is King Faisal win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.