ScoreProb
2. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Nykobing FC vs Brabrand

Nykobing FC Home · Elo 1,696
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brabrand Away · Elo 1,438
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nykobing FC win
Nykobing FC winPick
73.5%
Draw
13.4%
Brabrand win
13.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Nykobing FC history64 matches
Brabrand history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Nykobing FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nykobing FC are rated 258 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,696 against 1,438. On rating alone Nykobing FC would be expected to take 82% of the points on offer.

  • Nykobing FC score far more

    2.17 goals a game over 64 matches for Nykobing FC, against 1.26 over 61 for Brabrand.

  • Nykobing FC concede fewer

    Nykobing FC concede 1.14 a game, Brabrand 1.54.

  • Nykobing FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Nykobing FC matches, against 56% for Brabrand. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nykobing FC
Brabrand
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1695.8
ELO
1437.7
64
ELO · Matches
61
1695.8
Current Team ELO
1437.7
1437.7
Current Opponent ELO
1695.8
258.1
Current ELO Difference
-258.1
0.82
Expected score
0.18
64
History Matches
61
0.15
Residual Mean
-0.05
61.10
Overperformance
46.35
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
0.70
2.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
61
2.03
PPG
1.16
59.4%
Win rate
31.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.0%
15.6%
Loss rate
45.9%
85.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
64.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
2.03
PPG
1.07
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
53.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.17
Goals for per game
1.26
92.2%
Scoring rate
68.9%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.8%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.17
90.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
53.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
61
2.17
Goals Mean
1.26
1.42
Goals Std
1.19
92.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.4%
32.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.54
67.2%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.60
56.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
61
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.06
Conceded Std
1.34
34.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
7.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
7.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
61
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.83
13.88
Stability score
3.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
60
25
Lead Matches
16
88.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.75
15
Trailing Matches
22
46.7%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
0.75
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.59
Portability PPG Range
1.00
41.32
Portability Score
55.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO258.1
PPG0.87
GF0.91
GA-0.40
PPG1.75
PPG0.97
PPG1.40
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate23.3%
Scored 2+ rate28.1%
Scored 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score10.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate19.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate28.5%
Trailing Win Rate15.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-14.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.72
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO258.1
Current Opponent ELO-258.1
Current ELO Difference516.2
Expected score0.63
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance14.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nykobing FC

W
HIK1–4Nykobing FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 65% · hit
W
Nykobing FC3–0Thisted FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Nykobing FC 68% · hit
W
Vanløse0–2Nykobing FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Vanløse 47% · missed
L
Fremad Amager3–2Nykobing FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brabrand

L
Brabrand1–2FA 200031 Oct · home
Pick: Brabrand 38% · missed
W
B 932–3Brabrand24 Oct · away
Pick: B 93 59% · missed
L
Brabrand0–1HIK17 Oct · home
Pick: Brabrand 39% · missed
D
Brabrand1–1B 9329 Aug · home
Pick: B 93 47% · missed
W
KRFK1–5Brabrand26 Aug · away
Pick: KRFK 57% · missed

About this match

Nykobing FC and Brabrand meet in 2. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nykobing FC win 73.5%, draw 13.4%, Brabrand win 13.1%. The pick is Nykobing FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.