ScoreProb
Premier League Ukraine Round 12 2026

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh

Obolon'-Brovar Home · Elo 1,466
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Livyi Bereh Away · Elo 1,586
Obolon Arena, Kyiv Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:22 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Livyi Bereh win
Obolon'-Brovar win
29.5%
Draw
31.0%
Livyi Bereh winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.5%
No57.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.2%
Under 2.561.8%

How much we know

Obolon'-Brovar history67 matches
Livyi Bereh history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 3 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:22 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Livyi Bereh are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Livyi Bereh are rated 120 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,466. On rating alone Livyi Bereh would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Livyi Bereh score more

    0.88 goals a game over 67 matches for Obolon'-Brovar, against 1.31 over 65 for Livyi Bereh.

  • Livyi Bereh concede fewer

    Obolon'-Brovar concede 1.39 a game, Livyi Bereh 0.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Obolon'-Brovar matches, against 40% for Livyi Bereh. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Obolon'-Brovar
Livyi Bereh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.3
ELO
1586.1
67
ELO · Matches
65
1466.3
Current Team ELO
1586.1
1586.1
Current Opponent ELO
1466.3
-119.8
Current ELO Difference
119.8
0.33
Expected score
0.67
67
History Matches
65
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.15
Overperformance
55.31
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
0.70
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
65
1.12
PPG
1.62
25.4%
Win rate
46.2%
35.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
38.8%
Loss rate
30.8%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.1%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
31
1.26
PPG
1.35
26.3%
Win rate
38.7%
47.4%
Draw rate
19.4%
26.3%
Loss rate
41.9%
60.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.5%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
38
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.88
Goals for per game
1.31
56.7%
Scoring rate
70.8%
41.8%
BTTS rate
38.5%
0.97
Goals for per game
1.00
63.2%
Scoring rate
61.3%
44.7%
BTTS rate
32.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
65
0.88
Goals Mean
1.31
0.92
Goals Std
1.23
56.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
25.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
0.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
0.88
70.1%
Conceding rate
58.5%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.00
65.8%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
65
1.39
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.29
Conceded Std
0.97
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.2%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
65
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.41
Stability score
3.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
65
15
Lead Matches
23
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.86
21
Trailing Matches
17
14.3%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.89
Portability PPG Range
1.39
61.85
Portability Score
47.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-119.8
PPG-0.50
GF-0.43
GA0.51
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.09
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-2.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score13.96
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-119.8
Current Opponent ELO119.8
Current ELO Difference-239.6
Expected score-0.33
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Obolon'-Brovar

W
Obolon'-Brovar2–0Veres Rivne16 Oct · home
Pick: Veres Rivne 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Livyi Bereh

L
Livyi Bereh0–1Veres Rivne27 Oct · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh 46% · missed
D
Livyi Bereh0–0LNZ Cherkasy24 Oct · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh 49% · missed
L
FC Kharkiv2–1Livyi Bereh19 Oct · away
Pick: Livyi Bereh 36% · missed
L
Livyi Bereh1–3Zorya Luhansk12 Oct · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh 42% · missed
D
Livyi Bereh1–1Karpaty29 Aug · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh 38% · missed

About this match

Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Obolon Arena, Kyiv. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:22 UTC: Obolon'-Brovar win 29.5%, draw 31.0%, Livyi Bereh win 39.5%. The pick is Livyi Bereh win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.2%. Both teams to score: 42.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.