ScoreProb
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 16 2026

Oldenburger SV vs TSB Flensburg

Oldenburger SV Home · Elo 1,441
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
TSB Flensburg Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oldenburger SV win
Oldenburger SV winPick
45.0%
Draw
17.7%
TSB Flensburg win
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.1%
No33.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.6%
Under 2.529.4%

How much we know

Oldenburger SV history45 matches
TSB Flensburg history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oldenburger SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TSB Flensburg are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,441. On rating alone TSB Flensburg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.96 goals a game over 45 matches for Oldenburger SV, against 2.06 over 17 for TSB Flensburg.

  • TSB Flensburg concede fewer

    Oldenburger SV concede 2.56 a game, TSB Flensburg 1.94.

  • Oldenburger SV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    84% of Oldenburger SV matches, against 65% for TSB Flensburg. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oldenburger SV
TSB Flensburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.2
ELO
1498.9
45
ELO · Matches
17
1441.2
Current Team ELO
1498.9
1498.9
Current Opponent ELO
1441.2
-57.70
Current ELO Difference
57.70
0.42
Expected score
0.58
45
History Matches
17
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
45.15
Overperformance
50.59
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.50
2.90
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
17
1.02
PPG
1.35
26.7%
Win rate
35.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
29.4%
51.1%
Loss rate
35.3%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
84.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
73.3%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
0.43
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
42.9%
38.1%
Loss rate
57.1%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.99
21
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.96
Goals for per game
2.06
77.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
73.3%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.00
76.2%
Scoring rate
57.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
45
History Matches
17
1.96
Goals Mean
2.06
1.58
Goals Std
1.98
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
35.6%
Scored 3+ rate
35.3%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.56
Goals against per game
1.94
93.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.86
90.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
45
History Matches
17
2.56
Conceded Mean
1.94
1.53
Conceded Std
1.39
77.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
42.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.2%
2.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
17
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.97
6.27
Stability score
0.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
17
14
Lead Matches
3
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.78
19
Trailing Matches
4
26.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.13
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.43
Portability PPG Range
1.09
71.75
Portability Score
47.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-57.70
PPG-0.33
GF-0.10
GA0.61
PPG-0.60
PPG0.86
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches28
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches28
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate24.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score5.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate1.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score23.92
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-57.70
Current Opponent ELO57.70
Current ELO Difference-115.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches28
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oldenburger SV

L
Eckernförder SV2–0Oldenburger SV31 Oct · away
Pick: Oldenburger SV 54% · missed
D
Oldenburger SV2–2VfR Neumünster27 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 61% · missed
L
Oldenburger SV4–5Hohenwestedt24 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 45% · missed
D
Oldenburger SV2–2Phönix L. II16 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 53% · missed
W
Oldenburger SV4–0Heider SV4 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 50% · hit

TSB Flensburg

W
Hohenwestedt0–1TSB Flensburg31 Oct · away
Pick: Hohenwestedt 41% · missed
L
TSB Flensburg2–3VfR Neumünster25 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 56% · hit
W
Kaltenkirchen1–3TSB Flensburg17 Oct · away
Pick: Kaltenkirchen 39% · missed
L
TSB Flensburg1–2Heider SV30 Aug · home
Pick: TSB Flensburg 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oldenburger SV and TSB Flensburg meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Oldenburger SV win 45.0%, draw 17.7%, TSB Flensburg win 37.3%. The pick is Oldenburger SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.6%. Both teams to score: 66.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.