ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Oleksandria vs SK Poltava

Oleksandria Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SK Poltava Away · Elo 1,420
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oleksandria win
Oleksandria winPick
48.8%
Draw
30.3%
SK Poltava win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Oleksandria history71 matches
SK Poltava history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oleksandria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oleksandria are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,420. On rating alone Oleksandria would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Oleksandria score more

    1.25 goals a game over 71 matches for Oleksandria, against 1.00 over 49 for SK Poltava.

  • Oleksandria concede fewer

    Oleksandria concede 1.44 a game, SK Poltava 1.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Oleksandria matches, against 53% for SK Poltava. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.4
ELO
1420.4
71
ELO · Matches
49
1494.4
Current Team ELO
1420.4
1420.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.4
73.98
Current ELO Difference
-73.98
0.60
Expected score
0.40
71
History Matches
49
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.09
50.06
Overperformance
43.77
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
49
1.24
PPG
0.86
32.4%
Win rate
20.4%
26.8%
Draw rate
24.5%
40.8%
Loss rate
55.1%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
27
1.32
PPG
0.81
35.1%
Win rate
18.5%
27.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
37.8%
Loss rate
55.6%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
37
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
70.4%
Scoring rate
59.2%
52.1%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.93
70.3%
Scoring rate
59.3%
51.4%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
71
History Matches
49
1.25
Goals Mean
1.00
1.20
Goals Std
1.05
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
59.2%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.96
77.5%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.93
75.7%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
71
History Matches
49
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.16
Conceded Std
1.54
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.2%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.99
1.36
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
46
17
Lead Matches
11
58.8%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.67
19
Trailing Matches
24
15.8%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.08
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.53
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
9
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.67
1.65
Portability PPG Range
1.57
44.80
Portability Score
42.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO73.98
PPG0.38
GF0.25
GA-0.52
PPG0.00
PPG0.51
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches22
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-7.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate4.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score2.15
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.77
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO73.98
Current Opponent ELO-73.98
Current ELO Difference148.0
Expected score0.21
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oleksandria

D
Polissya II0–0Oleksandria2 Nov · away
Pick: Oleksandria 59% · missed
L
Karpaty2–1Oleksandria29 Oct · away
Pick: Karpaty 41% · hit
W
Oleksandria2–0Probiy Horodenka24 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria 66% · hit
D
Kulykiv1–1Oleksandria18 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria 43% · missed
W
Kolos Kovalivka II0–2Oleksandria4 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria 51% · hit

SK Poltava

W
Polissya II1–2SK Poltava24 Oct · away
Pick: SK Poltava 40% · hit
W
SK Poltava4–0Prykarpattia17 Oct · home
Pick: SK Poltava 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oleksandria and SK Poltava meet in Persha Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Oleksandria win 48.8%, draw 30.3%, SK Poltava win 20.9%. The pick is Oleksandria win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.