ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Osipovichy vs Uni Minsk

Osipovichy Home · Elo 1,378
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Uni Minsk Away · Elo 1,437
Yunost Stadium, Osipovichi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Uni Minsk win
Osipovichy win
29.6%
Draw
20.3%
Uni Minsk winPick
50.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Osipovichy history59 matches
Uni Minsk history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Uni Minsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Uni Minsk are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,437 against 1,378. On rating alone Uni Minsk would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Uni Minsk score more

    1.22 goals a game over 59 matches for Osipovichy, against 1.37 over 59 for Uni Minsk.

  • Uni Minsk concede fewer

    Osipovichy concede 2.32 a game, Uni Minsk 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Osipovichy matches, against 63% for Uni Minsk. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osipovichy
Uni Minsk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1377.8
ELO
1437.1
59
ELO · Matches
59
1377.8
Current Team ELO
1437.1
1437.1
Current Opponent ELO
1377.8
-59.34
Current ELO Difference
59.34
0.42
Expected score
0.58
59
History Matches
59
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.05
42.68
Overperformance
45.94
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
59
0.80
PPG
1.17
22.0%
Win rate
32.2%
13.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
64.4%
Loss rate
47.5%
91.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.7%
67.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.2%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
0.90
PPG
1.20
26.7%
Win rate
33.3%
10.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
63.3%
Loss rate
46.7%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.37
69.5%
Scoring rate
71.2%
61.0%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
61.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
33.3%
59
History Matches
59
1.22
Goals Mean
1.37
1.06
Goals Std
1.19
69.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.4%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.32
Goals against per game
1.75
89.8%
Conceding rate
69.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.70
93.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.43
Goals against per game
1.29
85.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
59
History Matches
59
2.32
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.62
Conceded Std
1.63
66.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
35.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
10.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
10.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
59
0.81
Result entropy
0.95
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.18
19.21
Stability score
5.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
12
Lead Matches
19
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.77
27
Trailing Matches
19
3.7%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
0.81
PPG
1.14
23.8%
Win rate
28.6%
9.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
66.7%
Loss rate
42.9%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
21
Current Competition Matches
21
0.81
Current Competition PPG
1.14
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.29
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.04
90.61
Portability Score
96.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-59.34
PPG-0.37
GF-0.15
GA0.58
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.30
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score14.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-5.64
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-59.34
Current Opponent ELO59.34
Current ELO Difference-118.7
Expected score-0.17
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Osipovichy

L
Molodechno-DYuSSh 45–0Osipovichy2 Nov · away
Pick: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 63% · hit
L
Osipovichy1–4Gomel II25 Oct · home
Pick: Osipovichy 44% · missed
L
Niva6–0Osipovichy30 Aug · away
Pick: Niva 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Uni Minsk

L
Uni Minsk1–3Lida31 Oct · home
Pick: Lida 44% · hit
D
Niva1–1Uni Minsk25 Oct · away
Pick: Niva 66% · missed
L
Uni Minsk0–1Molodechno-DYuSSh 429 Aug · home
Pick: Uni Minsk 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Osipovichy and Uni Minsk meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Yunost Stadium, Osipovichi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Osipovichy win 29.6%, draw 20.3%, Uni Minsk win 50.1%. The pick is Uni Minsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.