ScoreProb
Premier League Kyrgyzstan Round 29 2026

Ozgon vs Kara-Balta

Ozgon Home · Elo 1,543
Full time
2–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Kara-Balta Away · Elo 1,352
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Ozgon win
Ozgon winPick Result
85.8%
Draw
9.4%
Kara-Balta win
4.8%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

2 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickOzgon win · 85.8%
What happenedOzgon win · we gave it 85.8%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 73.2%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 53.4%
What happenedNo · 2–0
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Ozgon win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

86%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.2
on average
A pick at 86% is expected to miss about 1 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalA. Shamurzaev
25'
GoalR. Ahmadov
89'

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%

How much we know

Ozgon history47 matches
Kara-Balta history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 2–0Two of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (85.8%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Ozgon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ozgon are rated 191 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,352. On rating alone Ozgon would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Ozgon score far more

    1.62 goals a game over 47 matches for Ozgon, against 0.84 over 45 for Kara-Balta.

  • Ozgon concede fewer

    Ozgon concede 1.15 a game, Kara-Balta 2.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Ozgon matches, against 58% for Kara-Balta. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ozgon
Kara-Balta@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.3
ELO
1352.4
47
ELO · Matches
45
1543.3
Current Team ELO
1352.4
1352.4
Current Opponent ELO
1543.3
190.9
Current ELO Difference
-190.9
0.75
Expected score
0.25
47
History Matches
45
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.15
53.04
Overperformance
39.33
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
4.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.50
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
3.50
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.20
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
45
1.62
PPG
0.62
48.9%
Win rate
15.6%
14.9%
Draw rate
15.6%
36.2%
Loss rate
68.9%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
21
1.78
PPG
0.57
52.2%
Win rate
14.3%
21.7%
Draw rate
14.3%
26.1%
Loss rate
71.4%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
23
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
0.84
74.5%
Scoring rate
55.6%
48.9%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.57
Goals for per game
0.76
69.6%
Scoring rate
42.9%
39.1%
BTTS rate
38.1%
1.95
Goals for per game
0.90
85.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
47
History Matches
45
1.62
Goals Mean
0.84
1.28
Goals Std
0.92
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
55.3%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
2.38
68.1%
Conceding rate
84.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
2.81
56.5%
Conceding rate
90.5%
1.15
Goals against per game
2.80
70.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
47
History Matches
45
1.15
Conceded Mean
2.38
1.13
Conceded Std
1.82
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.0%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
2.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
45
0.91
Result entropy
0.76
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.07
8.87
Stability score
23.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
43
17
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.63
15
Trailing Matches
23
20.0%
Non-loss rate
4.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.94
Rest days
72.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.95
PPG
0.35
60.0%
Win rate
5.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.95
Current Competition PPG
0.35
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.90
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.59
Portability PPG Range
0.53
62.89
Portability Score
65.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO190.9
PPG0.99
GF0.77
GA-1.23
PPG1.60
PPG1.21
PPG0.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate34.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate33.1%
Scored 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.23
Conceded Std-0.69
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.33
History Matches2
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-15.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate37.5%
Lead Points Retention0.38
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.70
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-2.68
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.27
Current Team ELO190.9
Current Opponent ELO-190.9
Current ELO Difference381.8
Expected score0.50
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance13.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ozgon

W
Muras United0–2Ozgon31 Oct · away
Pick: Muras United 61% · missed
L
Ozgon1–3Bars12 Oct · home
Pick: Bars 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kara-Balta

D
Ilbirs1–1Kara-Balta23 Oct · away
Pick: Ilbirs 73% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Ozgon and Kara-Balta finished 2–0 in Premier League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Ozgon win 85.8%, draw 9.4%, Kara-Balta win 4.8%. Two of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.