ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou

Pafos Home · Elo 1,618
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Omonia 29is Maiou Away · Elo 1,533
Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pafos win
Pafos winPick
68.4%
Draw
16.5%
Omonia 29is Maiou win
15.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Pafos history89 matches
Omonia 29is Maiou history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Pafos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pafos are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,533. On rating alone Pafos would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 89 matches for Pafos, against 1.63 over 43 for Omonia 29is Maiou.

  • Pafos concede fewer

    Pafos concede 0.98 a game, Omonia 29is Maiou 1.47.

  • Omonia 29is Maiou games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Pafos matches, against 58% for Omonia 29is Maiou. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.3
ELO
1532.7
89
ELO · Matches
43
1618.3
Current Team ELO
1532.7
1532.7
Current Opponent ELO
1618.3
85.61
Current ELO Difference
-85.61
0.62
Expected score
0.38
89
History Matches
43
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.68
Overperformance
52.33
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
43
1.80
PPG
1.33
51.7%
Win rate
34.9%
24.7%
Draw rate
27.9%
23.6%
Loss rate
37.2%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
23
2.12
PPG
1.26
63.4%
Win rate
34.8%
22.0%
Draw rate
21.7%
14.6%
Loss rate
43.5%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
41
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.62
Goals for per game
1.63
79.8%
Scoring rate
76.7%
44.9%
BTTS rate
55.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.52
87.8%
Scoring rate
82.6%
46.3%
BTTS rate
56.5%
89
History Matches
43
1.62
Goals Mean
1.63
1.29
Goals Std
1.53
79.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
50.6%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.9%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.47
58.4%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.52
53.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
89
History Matches
43
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.06
Conceded Std
1.19
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.8%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
20.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
41.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
20.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
41.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
43
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.02
6.49
Stability score
0.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
43
37
Lead Matches
14
86.5%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.71
14
Trailing Matches
13
35.7%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
87.00
Rest days
198.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
59
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
3
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.76
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.52
45.41
Portability Score
39.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO85.61
PPG0.47
GF-0.01
GA-0.49
PPG0.86
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches46
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches46
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score5.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches23
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score5.72
Rest days-111.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest History Matches37
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO85.61
Current Opponent ELO-85.61
Current ELO Difference171.2
Expected score0.24
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance2.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pafos

D
Apollon Limassol2–2Pafos31 Oct · away
Pick: Pafos 43% · missed
D
Nea Salamis0–0Pafos26 Oct · away
Pick: Pafos 42% · missed
D
Pafos1–1Riga22 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 44% · missed
D
Pafos0–0Apoel Nicosia19 Oct · home
Pick: Pafos 62% · missed
L
Atalanta3–1Pafos15 Oct · away
Pick: Pafos 38% · missed

Omonia 29is Maiou

W
Omonia 29is Maiou1–0Nea Salamis1 Nov · home
Pick: Nea Salamis 49% · missed
L
Apoel Nicosia4–1Omonia 29is Maiou25 Oct · away
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 54% · hit
W
Omonia 29is Maiou1–0Anorthosis18 Oct · home
Pick: Anorthosis 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pafos and Omonia 29is Maiou meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pafos win 68.4%, draw 16.5%, Omonia 29is Maiou win 15.1%. The pick is Pafos win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.