ScoreProb
Meistriliiga Estonia Round 36 2026

Paide vs Flora Tallinn

Paide Home · Elo 1,610
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flora Tallinn Away · Elo 1,634
Paide linnastaadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flora Tallinn win
Paide win
32.0%
Draw
28.0%
Flora Tallinn winPick
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Paide history89 matches
Flora Tallinn history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Flora Tallinn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,610 against 1,634. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Flora Tallinn score more

    1.81 goals a game over 89 matches for Paide, against 2.11 over 83 for Flora Tallinn.

  • Flora Tallinn concede fewer

    Paide concede 1.19 a game, Flora Tallinn 1.04.

  • Flora Tallinn games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Paide matches, against 71% for Flora Tallinn. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paide
Flora Tallinn
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1610.1
ELO
1634.2
89
ELO · Matches
83
1610.1
Current Team ELO
1634.2
1634.2
Current Opponent ELO
1610.1
-24.10
Current ELO Difference
24.10
0.47
Expected score
0.53
89
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
0.09
55.59
Overperformance
56.85
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
83
1.84
PPG
2.00
55.1%
Win rate
63.9%
19.1%
Draw rate
8.4%
25.8%
Loss rate
27.7%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
57.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
33.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
38
2.10
PPG
1.95
65.3%
Win rate
60.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
13.2%
20.4%
Loss rate
26.3%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
61.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.3%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
49
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
2.11
85.4%
Scoring rate
85.5%
57.3%
BTTS rate
49.4%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.87
91.8%
Scoring rate
78.9%
51.0%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.65
Goals for per game
2.00
91.3%
Scoring rate
86.4%
69.6%
BTTS rate
45.5%
89
History Matches
83
1.81
Goals Mean
2.11
1.40
Goals Std
1.93
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
50.6%
Scored 2+ rate
59.0%
23.6%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.04
71.9%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.11
59.2%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.14
78.3%
Conceding rate
59.1%
89
History Matches
83
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.19
Conceded Std
1.07
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
11.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
83
0.91
Result entropy
0.77
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.54
9.48
Stability score
22.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
83
40
Lead Matches
38
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.94
19
Trailing Matches
20
26.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.85
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
22
1.70
PPG
1.91
47.8%
Win rate
63.6%
26.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
26.1%
Loss rate
36.4%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
23
Current Competition Matches
22
1.70
Current Competition PPG
1.91
0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.86
8
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.85
55.20
Portability Score
45.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.10
PPG-0.16
GF-0.30
GA0.15
PPG-0.21
PPG0.15
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches6
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-13.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.52
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.68
Portability Score9.86
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-24.10
Current Opponent ELO24.10
Current ELO Difference-48.19
Expected score-0.07
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paide

W
Vaprus0–1Paide31 Oct · away
Pick: Paide 42% · hit
L
Paide0–2Kalju Nomme28 Oct · home
Pick: Paide 37% · missed
W
Kuressaare0–1Paide24 Oct · away
Pick: Paide 48% · hit
W
Paide2–1Trans Narva18 Oct · home
Pick: Paide 69% · hit
W
Paide2–1Tammeka14 Oct · home
Pick: Paide 56% · hit

Flora Tallinn

W
Flora Tallinn2–0Trans Narva1 Nov · home
Pick: Flora Tallinn 70% · hit
L
Kalju Nomme2–1Flora Tallinn25 Oct · away
Pick: Kalju Nomme 39% · hit
L
Laagri3–1Flora Tallinn21 Oct · away
Pick: Flora Tallinn 51% · missed
W
Flora Tallinn2–0Tammeka18 Oct · home
Pick: Flora Tallinn 57% · hit
L
Flora Tallinn1–3FC Levadia Tallinn15 Oct · home
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 49% · hit

About this match

Paide and Flora Tallinn meet in Meistriliiga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Paide linnastaadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paide win 32.0%, draw 28.0%, Flora Tallinn win 40.0%. The pick is Flora Tallinn win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.