ScoreProb
Championnat National Benin Round 7 2026

Panthères vs Ayema

Panthères Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ayema Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Panthères win
28.8%
DrawPick
38.5%
Ayema win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.5%
No63.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.530.6%
Under 2.569.4%

How much we know

Panthères history15 matches
Ayema history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.80 goals a game over 15 matches for Panthères, against 0.86 over 37 for Ayema.

  • Ayema concede fewer

    Panthères concede 1.07 a game, Ayema 0.59.

  • Panthères games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Panthères matches, against 11% for Ayema. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panthères
Ayema
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.9
ELO
1508.8
15
ELO · Matches
37
1500.9
Current Team ELO
1508.8
1508.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.9
-7.96
Current ELO Difference
7.96
0.49
Expected score
0.51
15
History Matches
37
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.41
Overperformance
51.61
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.90
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
37
1.33
PPG
1.43
33.3%
Win rate
40.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.8%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
32.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
10.8%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
5.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
16
1.63
PPG
1.13
37.5%
Win rate
31.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
12.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
37.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
6.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
8
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.80
Goals for per game
0.86
60.0%
Scoring rate
51.4%
33.3%
BTTS rate
13.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.56
75.0%
Scoring rate
37.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
12.5%
15
History Matches
37
0.80
Goals Mean
0.86
0.83
Goals Std
1.30
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
51.4%
13.3%
Scored 2+ rate
18.9%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
5.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
0.59
53.3%
Conceding rate
48.6%
0.63
Goals against per game
0.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
15
History Matches
37
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.59
1.18
Conceded Std
0.72
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
8.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.7%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
37
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.62
0.00
Stability score
3.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
18
0
Lead Matches
3
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
4
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.17
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.11
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
517.0
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
6
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.38
—
Portability PPG Range
0.76
—
Portability Score
56.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.96
PPG-0.10
GF-0.06
GA0.47
PPG0.50
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-22
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate25.2%
Conceded 3+ rate17.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-22
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-3.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-3
Trailing Matches-4
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days377.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-7.96
Current Opponent ELO7.96
Current ELO Difference-15.92
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-22
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Panthères

L
Coton Sport Ouidah2–1Panthères31 Oct · away
Pick: Coton Sport Ouidah 56% · hit
D
Panthères1–1Loto Popo24 Oct · home
Pick: Loto Popo 38% · missed
D
AS Sobemap0–0Panthères18 Oct · away
Pick: AS Sobemap 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ayema

D
Ayema0–0Damissa31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
D
Hodio1–1Ayema24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 44% · hit
D
Ayema1–1Bani Gansè18 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Panthères and Ayema meet in Championnat National on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Panthères win 28.8%, draw 38.5%, Ayema win 32.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 30.6%. Both teams to score: 36.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.