ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran

Paykan Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nassaji Mazandaran Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paykan win
Paykan winPick
36.4%
Draw
35.4%
Nassaji Mazandaran win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.8%
No57.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.533.7%
Under 2.566.3%

How much we know

Paykan history45 matches
Nassaji Mazandaran history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Paykan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nassaji Mazandaran are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,506. On rating alone Nassaji Mazandaran would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.98 goals a game over 45 matches for Paykan, against 1.04 over 54 for Nassaji Mazandaran.

  • Nassaji Mazandaran concede fewer

    Paykan concede 0.84 a game, Nassaji Mazandaran 0.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    24% of Paykan matches, against 30% for Nassaji Mazandaran. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paykan
Nassaji Mazandaran
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.2
ELO
1546.6
45
ELO · Matches
54
1506.2
Current Team ELO
1546.6
1546.6
Current Opponent ELO
1506.2
-40.40
Current ELO Difference
40.40
0.44
Expected score
0.56
45
History Matches
54
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.59
Overperformance
52.86
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
54
1.38
PPG
1.52
33.3%
Win rate
40.7%
37.8%
Draw rate
29.6%
28.9%
Loss rate
29.6%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
51.9%
24.4%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
8.9%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
28
1.57
PPG
1.43
39.1%
Win rate
35.7%
39.1%
Draw rate
35.7%
21.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
8.7%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.04
62.2%
Scoring rate
64.8%
35.6%
BTTS rate
31.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.04
65.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
34.8%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
45
History Matches
54
0.98
Goals Mean
1.04
0.93
Goals Std
1.07
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
64.8%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.84
Goals against per game
0.74
57.8%
Conceding rate
48.1%
0.70
Goals against per game
0.79
52.2%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
54
0.84
Conceded Mean
0.74
0.82
Conceded Std
0.91
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.9%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.9%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.41
0.54
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
54
11
Lead Matches
13
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.77
9
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.83
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.76
Portability PPG Range
1.70
61.60
Portability Score
40.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-40.40
PPG-0.14
GF-0.06
GA0.10
PPG1.00
PPG0.14
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-0.94
Portability Score21.59
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO-40.40
Current Opponent ELO40.40
Current ELO Difference-80.81
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paykan

W
Mes Shahr-e Babak1–3Paykan31 Oct · away
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 42% · missed
D
Paykan1–1Malavan25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
L
Fajr Sepasi2–0Paykan19 Oct · away
Pick: Fajr Sepasi 42% · hit
W
Kheybar Khorramabad2–3Paykan24 Aug · away
Pick: Kheybar Khorramabad 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nassaji Mazandaran

D
Nassaji Mazandaran2–2Fajr Sepasi25 Oct · home
Pick: Nassaji Mazandaran 42% · missed
D
Foolad FC0–0Nassaji Mazandaran18 Oct · away
Pick: Foolad FC 47% · missed
D
Nassaji Mazandaran1–1ZOB Ahan8 Oct · home
Pick: Nassaji Mazandaran 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paykan and Nassaji Mazandaran meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paykan win 36.4%, draw 35.4%, Nassaji Mazandaran win 28.2%. The pick is Paykan win. Over 2.5 goals: 33.7%. Both teams to score: 42.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.