ScoreProb
Carioca - 2 Brazil Round 11 2026

Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias

Petrópolis Home · Elo 1,497
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Duque de Caxias Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Petrópolis win
31.7%
DrawPick
36.8%
Duque de Caxias win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.4%
Under 2.564.6%

How much we know

Petrópolis history23 matches
Duque de Caxias history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,497 against 1,493. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Petrópolis score more

    0.91 goals a game over 23 matches for Petrópolis, against 0.75 over 28 for Duque de Caxias.

  • Petrópolis concede fewer

    Petrópolis concede 0.83 a game, Duque de Caxias 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    22% of Petrópolis matches, against 25% for Duque de Caxias. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Petrópolis
Duque de Caxias
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.2
ELO
1492.8
23
ELO · Matches
28
1497.2
Current Team ELO
1492.8
1492.8
Current Opponent ELO
1497.2
4.41
Current ELO Difference
-4.41
0.51
Expected score
0.49
23
History Matches
28
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.44
Overperformance
49.29
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
28
1.35
PPG
1.29
34.8%
Win rate
35.7%
30.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
34.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
21.7%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
4.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
14
1.27
PPG
0.79
36.4%
Win rate
21.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
64.3%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
21.4%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
11
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.91
Goals for per game
0.75
69.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
34.8%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.09
Goals for per game
0.43
72.7%
Scoring rate
35.7%
36.4%
BTTS rate
14.3%
23
History Matches
28
0.91
Goals Mean
0.75
0.78
Goals Std
0.87
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
17.4%
Scored 2+ rate
21.4%
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
0.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.07
56.5%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.21
63.6%
Conceding rate
64.3%
23
History Matches
28
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.92
Conceded Std
1.03
17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.3%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
28
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.44
0.17
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
28
6
Lead Matches
6
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.72
6
Trailing Matches
8
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
364.0
Rest days
137.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.72
84.05
Portability Score
61.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO4.41
PPG0.06
GF0.16
GA-0.25
PPG0.49
PPG-0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate19.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-3.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score22.60
Rest days227.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO4.41
Current Opponent ELO-4.41
Current ELO Difference8.82
Expected score0.01
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Petrópolis

W
Nova Cidade0–1Petrópolis31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 46% · missed
D
Petrópolis2–2Carapebus24 Oct · home
Pick: Petrópolis 45% · missed
D
Petrópolis1–1Serrano RJ20 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Macaé0–1Petrópolis17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Duque de Caxias

L
Duque de Caxias1–2Serrano RJ31 Oct · home
Pick: Duque de Caxias 37% · missed
D
Macaé0–0Duque de Caxias24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Duque de Caxias2–1Artsul21 Oct · home
Pick: Duque de Caxias 46% · hit
W
Campo Grande0–3Duque de Caxias17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Petrópolis and Duque de Caxias meet in Carioca - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Petrópolis win 31.7%, draw 36.8%, Duque de Caxias win 31.4%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 35.4%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.