ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Pineto vs Vis Pesaro

Pineto Home · Elo 1,496
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vis Pesaro Away · Elo 1,480
Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani, Pineto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pineto win
Pineto winPick
47.9%
Draw
24.5%
Vis Pesaro win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Pineto history58 matches
Vis Pesaro history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pineto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,496 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pineto score more

    1.19 goals a game over 58 matches for Pineto, against 0.98 over 66 for Vis Pesaro.

  • Vis Pesaro concede fewer

    Pineto concede 1.38 a game, Vis Pesaro 1.23.

  • Pineto games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Pineto matches, against 38% for Vis Pesaro. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pineto
Vis Pesaro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.4
ELO
1479.8
58
ELO · Matches
66
1496.4
Current Team ELO
1479.8
1479.8
Current Opponent ELO
1496.4
16.60
Current ELO Difference
-16.60
0.52
Expected score
0.48
58
History Matches
66
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.99
Overperformance
48.25
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.80
0.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
66
1.31
PPG
1.15
32.8%
Win rate
25.8%
32.8%
Draw rate
37.9%
34.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
36
1.43
PPG
1.03
36.7%
Win rate
22.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
36.1%
30.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
30
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
0.98
75.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
56.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.37
Goals for per game
0.94
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.1%
63.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
66
1.19
Goals Mean
0.98
0.94
Goals Std
0.91
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
24.2%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.23
75.9%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.42
73.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
66
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.16
Conceded Std
1.29
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
66
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.03
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
20
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.57
17
Trailing Matches
14
17.6%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.15
Rest days
79.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.11
Portability PPG Range
1.08
90.07
Portability Score
53.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.60
PPG0.16
GF0.20
GA0.15
PPG1.00
PPG0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-1.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.45
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate4.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score36.48
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO16.60
Current Opponent ELO-16.60
Current ELO Difference33.20
Expected score0.05
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pineto

L
Ravenna2–1Pineto1 Nov · away
Pick: Ravenna 57% · hit
W
Pineto1–0Gubbio23 Oct · home
Pick: Pineto 53% · hit
D
Pianese0–0Pineto17 Oct · away
Pick: Pineto 38% · missed
L
Guidonia Montecelio 19371–0Pineto4 Oct · away
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 52% · hit
D
Pineto0–0Livorno29 Aug · home
Pick: Pineto 40% · missed

Vis Pesaro

D
Gubbio0–0Vis Pesaro1 Nov · away
Pick: Vis Pesaro 38% · missed
L
Atalanta II2–1Vis Pesaro28 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Vis Pesaro0–4Ravenna24 Oct · home
Pick: Ravenna 47% · hit
L
Latina1–0Vis Pesaro18 Oct · away
Pick: Latina 45% · hit
D
Vis Pesaro2–2Perugia30 Aug · home
Pick: Vis Pesaro 36% · missed

About this match

Pineto and Vis Pesaro meet in Serie C - Girone B on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani, Pineto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Pineto win 47.9%, draw 24.5%, Vis Pesaro win 27.5%. The pick is Pineto win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.