ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

Piratas vs Cancún

Piratas Home · Elo 1,508
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cancún Away · Elo 1,542
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 08:08 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Piratas win
Piratas winPick
37.2%
Draw
30.2%
Cancún win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Piratas history5 matches
Cancún history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 16 h ahead
    4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Piratas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cancún are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,508. On rating alone Cancún would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cancún score far more

    0.80 goals a game over 5 matches for Piratas, against 1.45 over 47 for Cancún.

  • Piratas concede fewer

    Piratas concede 0.60 a game, Cancún 1.06.

  • Cancún games more often go over 2.5 goals

    20% of Piratas matches, against 47% for Cancún. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Piratas
Cancún
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.5
ELO
1542.0
5
ELO · Matches
47
1507.5
Current Team ELO
1542.0
1542.0
Current Opponent ELO
1507.5
-34.50
Current ELO Difference
34.50
0.45
Expected score
0.55
5
History Matches
47
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
51.25
Overperformance
53.71
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
5
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
0.90
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
5
Matches
47
1.40
PPG
1.66
40.0%
Win rate
48.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
31.9%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
21
1.50
PPG
1.48
50.0%
Win rate
42.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
2
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.80
Goals for per game
1.45
40.0%
Scoring rate
83.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
51.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.19
50.0%
Scoring rate
81.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
5
History Matches
47
0.80
Goals Mean
1.45
1.17
Goals Std
1.27
40.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.60
Goals against per game
1.06
40.0%
Conceding rate
63.8%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.19
50.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
5
History Matches
47
0.60
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.80
Conceded Std
1.06
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
5
History Matches
47
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.98
Stability score
6.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
5
Eligible Matches
47
0
Lead Matches
20
—
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.92
2
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
2
Normal Rest History Matches
22
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
2
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.40
PPG
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.31
—
Portability PPG Range
0.86
—
Portability Score
61.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
5
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-34.50
PPG-0.26
GF-0.65
GA-0.46
PPG-0.10
PPG0.02
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-42
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate43.0%
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate31.0%
History Matches-42
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.43
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches-42
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-42
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-2.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-20
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.70
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.32
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.59
Current Team ELO-34.50
Current Opponent ELO34.50
Current ELO Difference-69.01
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-42
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance-2.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Piratas

D
Piratas1–1Tapatío1 Nov · home
Pick: Tapatío 35% · missed
W
Dorados0–5Piratas25 Oct · away
Pick: Dorados 54% · missed
W
Piratas3–0Tepatitlán18 Oct · home
Pick: Piratas 43% · hit
W
Piratas4–0Alebrijes de Oaxaca4 Oct · home
Pick: Piratas 47% · hit
D
Leones Negros UDG1–1Piratas30 Aug · away
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 62% · missed

Cancún

W
Cancún2–0CDS Tampico Madero1 Nov · home
Pick: Cancún 39% · hit
W
Tepatitlán0–4Cancún24 Oct · away
Pick: Cancún 39% · hit
D
Cancún1–1Venados FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Cancún 49% · missed
W
Cancún1–0Tapatío4 Oct · home
Pick: Cancún 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Piratas and Cancún meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 08:08 UTC: Piratas win 37.2%, draw 30.2%, Cancún win 32.7%. The pick is Piratas win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.