ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 14 2026

Platense FC vs Génesis

Platense FC Home · Elo 1,466
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Génesis Away · Elo 1,483
Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Génesis win
Platense FC win
27.0%
Draw
22.2%
Génesis winPick
50.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Platense FC history37 matches
Génesis history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Génesis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,466 against 1,483. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Platense FC score more

    1.43 goals a game over 37 matches for Platense FC, against 1.26 over 54 for Génesis.

  • Defences are close

    Platense FC concede 1.38 a game, Génesis 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Platense FC matches, against 44% for Génesis. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Platense FC
Génesis
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.3
ELO
1483.3
37
ELO · Matches
54
1466.3
Current Team ELO
1483.3
1483.3
Current Opponent ELO
1466.3
-16.94
Current ELO Difference
16.94
0.48
Expected score
0.52
37
History Matches
54
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.21
Overperformance
48.77
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
54
1.16
PPG
1.11
27.0%
Win rate
24.1%
35.1%
Draw rate
38.9%
37.8%
Loss rate
37.0%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
28
1.42
PPG
0.93
31.6%
Win rate
21.4%
47.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
21.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
19
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.26
70.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
56.8%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.18
84.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
68.4%
BTTS rate
67.9%
0.25
Goals for per game
1.50
25.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
37
History Matches
54
1.43
Goals Mean
1.26
1.39
Goals Std
1.17
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.5%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.50
86.5%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.71
84.2%
Conceding rate
89.3%
2.25
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
54
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.50
0.91
Conceded Std
1.23
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.89
Stability score
1.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
54
10
Lead Matches
14
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.71
12
Trailing Matches
21
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
17
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.92
49.44
Portability Score
56.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.94
PPG0.05
GF0.17
GA-0.12
PPG-1.50
PPG0.49
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate5.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-7.27
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.05
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-16.94
Current Opponent ELO16.94
Current ELO Difference-33.88
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Platense FC

L
Olancho4–1Platense FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Olancho 61% · hit
L
Real Espana4–3Platense FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Espana 74% · hit
L
Platense FC0–2CD Motagua17 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 63% · hit
W
Platense FC2–1Atletico Independiente29 Aug · home
Pick: Platense FC 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Génesis

L
Lobos Upnfm4–3Génesis31 Oct · away
Pick: Génesis 47% · missed
L
Atlético Choloma3–1Génesis24 Oct · away
Pick: Génesis 53% · missed
L
Génesis1–2CD Marathon29 Aug · home
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Platense FC and Génesis meet in Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Platense FC win 27.0%, draw 22.2%, Génesis win 50.8%. The pick is Génesis win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.