ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted

Plymouth Parkway Home · Elo 1,519
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Berkhamsted Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Plymouth Parkway win
Plymouth Parkway winPick
41.6%
Draw
23.6%
Berkhamsted win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Plymouth Parkway history69 matches
Berkhamsted history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Plymouth Parkway are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Berkhamsted are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,519. On rating alone Berkhamsted would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.61 goals a game over 69 matches for Plymouth Parkway, against 1.55 over 65 for Berkhamsted.

  • Berkhamsted concede fewer

    Plymouth Parkway concede 1.81 a game, Berkhamsted 1.15.

  • Plymouth Parkway games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Plymouth Parkway matches, against 52% for Berkhamsted. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Plymouth Parkway
Berkhamsted
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.6
ELO
1548.2
69
ELO · Matches
65
1518.6
Current Team ELO
1548.2
1548.2
Current Opponent ELO
1518.6
-29.61
Current ELO Difference
29.61
0.46
Expected score
0.54
69
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.63
Overperformance
52.81
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
65
1.42
PPG
1.63
42.0%
Win rate
46.2%
15.9%
Draw rate
24.6%
42.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
1.73
PPG
1.28
54.1%
Win rate
34.4%
10.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.1%
Loss rate
40.6%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.61
Goals for per game
1.55
76.8%
Scoring rate
83.1%
60.9%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.16
81.1%
Scoring rate
78.1%
56.8%
BTTS rate
53.1%
69
History Matches
65
1.61
Goals Mean
1.55
1.37
Goals Std
1.19
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.1%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
23.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.81
Goals against per game
1.15
84.1%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.34
75.7%
Conceding rate
71.9%
69
History Matches
65
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.40
Conceded Std
1.13
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.9%
26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
65
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.80
7.03
Stability score
3.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
58
22
Lead Matches
19
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.93
26
Trailing Matches
19
38.5%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.23
Rest days
79.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
56
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.16
69.35
Portability Score
49.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-29.61
PPG-0.21
GF0.05
GA0.66
PPG0.45
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score3.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate12.1%
Trailing Win Rate15.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score19.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-29.61
Current Opponent ELO29.61
Current ELO Difference-59.21
Expected score-0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Plymouth Parkway

W
Plymouth Parkway3–1Uxbridge3 Nov · home
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 48% · hit
L
Hanworth Villa4–2Plymouth Parkway31 Oct · away
Pick: Hanworth Villa 44% · hit
W
Plymouth Parkway1–0Gloucester City27 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 42% · hit
L
Basingstoke Town2–0Plymouth Parkway24 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 44% · missed
W
Plymouth Parkway2–0Chertsey Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Chertsey Town 41% · missed

Berkhamsted

D
Gloucester City2–2Berkhamsted31 Oct · away
Pick: Gloucester City 61% · missed
D
Berkhamsted1–1Sholing27 Oct · home
Pick: Berkhamsted 38% · missed
L
Berkhamsted1–2Cray Wanderers24 Oct · home
Pick: Cray Wanderers 39% · hit
L
Chichester City3–1Berkhamsted20 Oct · away
Pick: Chichester City 51% · hit
W
Southend1–2Berkhamsted17 Oct · away
Pick: Southend 60% · missed

About this match

Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted meet in FA Cup on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Plymouth Parkway win 41.6%, draw 23.6%, Berkhamsted win 34.7%. The pick is Plymouth Parkway win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.