ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk

Polonia Bytom Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lechia Gdansk Away · Elo 1,457
Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8 Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polonia Bytom win
Polonia Bytom winPick
58.0%
Draw
18.8%
Lechia Gdansk win
23.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%

How much we know

Polonia Bytom history69 matches
Lechia Gdansk history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Polonia Bytom are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polonia Bytom are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,457. On rating alone Polonia Bytom would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Polonia Bytom score more

    1.91 goals a game over 69 matches for Polonia Bytom, against 1.62 over 65 for Lechia Gdansk.

  • Polonia Bytom concede fewer

    Polonia Bytom concede 1.55 a game, Lechia Gdansk 1.86.

  • Lechia Gdansk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Polonia Bytom matches, against 69% for Lechia Gdansk. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polonia Bytom
Lechia Gdansk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.0
ELO
1457.5
69
ELO · Matches
65
1494.0
Current Team ELO
1457.5
1457.5
Current Opponent ELO
1494.0
36.50
Current ELO Difference
-36.50
0.55
Expected score
0.45
69
History Matches
65
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.83
Overperformance
48.32
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.50
1.90
Goals for per game
0.90
2.50
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
65
1.51
PPG
1.26
43.5%
Win rate
35.4%
20.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
36.2%
Loss rate
44.6%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.7%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
44.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
29
1.83
PPG
0.97
52.8%
Win rate
24.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
22.2%
Loss rate
51.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
52.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
36
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.62
79.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
56.5%
BTTS rate
70.8%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.55
83.3%
Scoring rate
82.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
75.9%
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
69
History Matches
65
1.91
Goals Mean
1.62
1.69
Goals Std
1.20
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
29.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.86
71.0%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.36
Goals against per game
2.10
69.4%
Conceding rate
93.1%
2.80
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
65
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.41
Conceded Std
1.25
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
65
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.10
Stability score
4.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
65
30
Lead Matches
19
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.70
16
Trailing Matches
23
31.3%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.99
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.91
Rest days
78.70
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
33
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.73
48.91
Portability Score
67.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO36.50
PPG0.25
GF0.30
GA-0.31
PPG0.20
PPG0.87
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score-0.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-18.38
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO36.50
Current Opponent ELO-36.50
Current ELO Difference73.00
Expected score0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polonia Bytom

W
Polonia Bytom3–0Odra Opole2 Nov · home
Pick: Odra Opole 38% · missed
L
Chrobry Głogów2–0Polonia Bytom29 Oct · away
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 41% · hit
W
Unia Skierniewice1–2Polonia Bytom24 Oct · away
Pick: Unia Skierniewice 48% · missed
W
Polonia Bytom3–2Chrobry Głogów17 Oct · home
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 40% · missed
D
Arka Gdynia1–1Polonia Bytom30 Aug · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia 55% · missed

Lechia Gdansk

W
Lechia Gdansk3–2Unia Skierniewice31 Oct · home
Pick: Unia Skierniewice 48% · missed
L
Lechia Gdansk0–6Jagiellonia28 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 56% · hit
L
Puszcza Niepołomice2–1Lechia Gdansk24 Oct · away
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% · hit
W
Lechia Gdansk2–1Arka Gdynia18 Oct · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia 49% · missed
W
Stal Rzeszów1–2Lechia Gdansk12 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Rzeszów 40% · missed

About this match

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk meet in I Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. The match is played at Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Polonia Bytom win 58.0%, draw 18.8%, Lechia Gdansk win 23.3%. The pick is Polonia Bytom win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.