ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 17 2026

Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice

Polonia Nysa Home · Elo 1,442
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Górnik Polkowice Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Górnik Polkowice win
Polonia Nysa win
24.8%
Draw
21.0%
Górnik Polkowice winPick
54.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Polonia Nysa history42 matches
Górnik Polkowice history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Górnik Polkowice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Górnik Polkowice are rated 142 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,442. On rating alone Górnik Polkowice would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Górnik Polkowice score more

    1.36 goals a game over 42 matches for Polonia Nysa, against 1.84 over 70 for Górnik Polkowice.

  • Górnik Polkowice concede fewer

    Polonia Nysa concede 1.86 a game, Górnik Polkowice 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Polonia Nysa matches, against 61% for Górnik Polkowice. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polonia Nysa
Górnik Polkowice@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.8
ELO
1583.9
42
ELO · Matches
70
1441.8
Current Team ELO
1583.9
1583.9
Current Opponent ELO
1441.8
-142.2
Current ELO Difference
142.2
0.31
Expected score
0.69
42
History Matches
70
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.06
44.78
Overperformance
54.86
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
70
1.00
PPG
1.86
23.8%
Win rate
55.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.6%
47.6%
Loss rate
25.7%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
33
1.11
PPG
1.61
26.3%
Win rate
48.5%
31.6%
Draw rate
15.2%
42.1%
Loss rate
36.4%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
19
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.84
73.8%
Scoring rate
81.4%
64.3%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.64
78.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
63.2%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
42
History Matches
70
1.36
Goals Mean
1.84
1.19
Goals Std
1.45
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.7%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
27.1%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.30
85.7%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.33
73.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
42
History Matches
70
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.46
Conceded Std
1.31
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.90
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.09
4.16
Stability score
10.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
68
10
Lead Matches
27
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.86
21
Trailing Matches
12
19.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.29
Rest days
82.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.75
79.92
Portability Score
66.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-142.2
PPG-0.86
GF-0.49
GA0.56
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches-28
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-5.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches-27
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score13.26
Rest days1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-142.2
Current Opponent ELO142.2
Current ELO Difference-284.3
Expected score-0.39
History Matches-28
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polonia Nysa

D
Polonia Nysa0–0Carina Gubin31 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Nysa 43% · missed
L
ROW Rybnik3–0Polonia Nysa24 Oct · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 56% · hit
D
Polonia Nysa2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra16 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 57% · missed
L
Polonia Nysa1–3Ślęza Wrocław29 Aug · home
Pick: Polonia Nysa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Górnik Polkowice

D
Ślęza Wrocław2–2Górnik Polkowice30 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 51% · missed
W
Górnik Polkowice4–1Goczałkowice Zdrój24 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 59% · hit
L
Stal Brzeg2–0Górnik Polkowice17 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Brzeg 42% · hit
W
ROW Rybnik1–3Górnik Polkowice29 Aug · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polonia Nysa and Górnik Polkowice meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Polonia Nysa win 24.8%, draw 21.0%, Górnik Polkowice win 54.2%. The pick is Górnik Polkowice win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.