ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

Porto U19 vs Vizela U19

Porto U19 Home · Elo 1,689
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vizela U19 Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Porto U19 win
Porto U19 winPick
79.5%
Draw
13.0%
Vizela U19 win
7.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.0%
Under 2.521.0%

How much we know

Porto U19 history51 matches
Vizela U19 history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (79.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Porto U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Porto U19 are rated 245 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,689 against 1,444. On rating alone Porto U19 would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.

  • Porto U19 score far more

    2.76 goals a game over 51 matches for Porto U19, against 1.50 over 30 for Vizela U19.

  • Porto U19 concede fewer

    Porto U19 concede 1.25 a game, Vizela U19 2.20.

  • Porto U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    86% of Porto U19 matches, against 73% for Vizela U19. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Porto U19
Vizela U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1688.6
ELO
1443.6
51
ELO · Matches
30
1688.6
Current Team ELO
1443.6
1443.6
Current Opponent ELO
1688.6
245.0
Current ELO Difference
-245.0
0.80
Expected score
0.20
51
History Matches
30
0.19
Residual Mean
-0.10
63.31
Overperformance
44.09
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.00
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
30
2.35
PPG
0.97
74.5%
Win rate
23.3%
11.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
13.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
86.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
16
2.59
PPG
1.06
85.2%
Win rate
31.3%
3.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
11.1%
Loss rate
56.3%
96.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
92.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
27
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.76
Goals for per game
1.50
94.1%
Scoring rate
73.3%
62.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.89
Goals for per game
1.44
96.3%
Scoring rate
68.8%
59.3%
BTTS rate
56.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
30
2.76
Goals Mean
1.50
1.73
Goals Std
1.09
94.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
76.5%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
54.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
2.20
66.7%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.00
63.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
30
1.25
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.22
Conceded Std
1.72
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.7%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
30
0.68
Result entropy
0.95
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.81
32.32
Stability score
5.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
30
26
Lead Matches
8
96.2%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.42
10
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.30
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
14
2.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
20
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.43
Portability PPG Std
—
1.06
Portability PPG Range
—
53.53
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO245.0
PPG1.39
GF1.26
GA-0.95
PPG3.00
PPG1.53
PPG1.60
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches21
Goals Mean1.26
Goals Std0.65
Scored 1+ rate20.8%
Scored 2+ rate19.8%
Scored 3+ rate34.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.95
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.27
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score26.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate71.2%
Lead Points Retention0.56
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate23.3%
Trailing Win Rate11.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.11
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.57
Current Team ELO245.0
Current Opponent ELO-245.0
Current ELO Difference490.0
Expected score0.61
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.28
Overperformance19.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Porto U19

L
Feirense U191–0Porto U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 65% · missed
L
Academico Viseu U195–1Porto U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 62% · missed
W
Porto U193–1PSV U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 73% · hit
W
Porto U195–0Gil Vicente U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 69% · hit
L
Real Betis U195–0Porto U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 51% · missed

Vizela U19

D
Vizela U191–1Vitoria Guimaraes U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 48% · missed
D
Vizela U192–2Moreirense U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Vizela U19 44% · missed
L
Vizela U192–5Porto U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Porto U19 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Porto U19 and Vizela U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Porto U19 win 79.5%, draw 13.0%, Vizela U19 win 7.5%. The pick is Porto U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.0%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.