ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Portsmouth vs Stoke City

Portsmouth Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stoke City Away · Elo 1,445
Fratton Park, Portsmouth Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Portsmouth win
Portsmouth winPick
50.2%
Draw
24.1%
Stoke City win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Portsmouth history80 matches
Stoke City history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Portsmouth are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Portsmouth are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,445. On rating alone Portsmouth would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.19 goals a game over 80 matches for Portsmouth, against 1.10 over 79 for Stoke City.

  • Defences are close

    Portsmouth concede 1.31 a game, Stoke City 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Portsmouth matches, against 42% for Stoke City. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portsmouth
Stoke City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.4
ELO
1445.4
80
ELO · Matches
79
1494.4
Current Team ELO
1445.4
1445.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.4
49.04
Current ELO Difference
-49.04
0.57
Expected score
0.43
80
History Matches
79
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.22
Overperformance
48.08
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
79
1.28
PPG
1.24
33.8%
Win rate
32.9%
26.3%
Draw rate
25.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
41.8%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.5%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
1.38
PPG
0.97
37.8%
Win rate
25.7%
24.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.8%
Loss rate
54.3%
59.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.10
75.0%
Scoring rate
67.1%
55.0%
BTTS rate
46.8%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.83
75.7%
Scoring rate
54.3%
51.4%
BTTS rate
37.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
79
1.19
Goals Mean
1.10
1.09
Goals Std
1.06
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.1%
26.3%
Scored 2+ rate
27.8%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.28
73.8%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.46
70.3%
Conceding rate
74.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
79
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.26
Conceded Std
1.19
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.7%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.31
Stability score
1.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
79
20
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.74
28
Trailing Matches
21
17.9%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.74
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
49
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.14
44.49
Portability Score
51.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO49.04
PPG0.03
GF0.09
GA0.03
PPG1.50
PPG0.41
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate3.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-6.96
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO49.04
Current Opponent ELO-49.04
Current ELO Difference98.08
Expected score0.14
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Portsmouth

W
Portsmouth3–1Swansea3 Nov · home
Pick: Portsmouth 38% · hit
D
Burnley0–0Portsmouth31 Oct · away
Pick: Portsmouth 42% · missed
W
Portsmouth2–1Millwall24 Oct · home
Pick: Millwall 49% · missed
D
Wolves1–1Portsmouth20 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 48% · missed
W
Norwich0–1Portsmouth17 Oct · away
Pick: Norwich 40% · missed

Stoke City

W
Blackburn1–2Stoke City3 Nov · away
Pick: Blackburn 53% · missed
W
Stoke City2–0Preston31 Oct · home
Pick: Stoke City 43% · hit
D
Stoke City0–0Bristol City24 Oct · home
Pick: Stoke City 36% · missed
W
Derby0–1Stoke City17 Oct · away
Pick: Derby 50% · missed
L
Stoke City2–3Middlesbrough13 Oct · home
Pick: Middlesbrough 40% · hit

About this match

Portsmouth and Stoke City meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Fratton Park, Portsmouth. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Portsmouth win 50.2%, draw 24.1%, Stoke City win 25.7%. The pick is Portsmouth win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.