ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Cardiff vs Burnley

Cardiff Home · Elo 1,611
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Burnley Away · Elo 1,412
Cardiff City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff win
Cardiff winPick
63.4%
Draw
22.1%
Burnley win
14.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Cardiff history86 matches
Burnley history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Cardiff are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cardiff are rated 199 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,412. On rating alone Cardiff would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Cardiff score more

    1.77 goals a game over 86 matches for Cardiff, against 1.26 over 74 for Burnley.

  • Defences are close

    Cardiff concede 1.38 a game, Burnley 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Cardiff matches, against 53% for Burnley. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cardiff
Burnley
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1610.6
ELO
1411.7
86
ELO · Matches
74
1610.6
Current Team ELO
1411.7
1411.7
Current Opponent ELO
1610.6
198.9
Current ELO Difference
-198.9
0.76
Expected score
0.24
86
History Matches
74
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
55.09
Overperformance
45.62
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.50
3.10
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
74
1.65
PPG
1.11
46.5%
Win rate
28.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
25.7%
27.9%
Loss rate
45.9%
80.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
38.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
36
1.84
PPG
0.94
55.8%
Win rate
25.0%
16.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
27.9%
Loss rate
55.6%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
43
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.26
82.6%
Scoring rate
70.3%
61.6%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.14
81.4%
Scoring rate
72.2%
58.1%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
74
1.77
Goals Mean
1.26
1.39
Goals Std
1.17
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.5%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.51
74.4%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.83
72.1%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
74
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.40
Conceded Std
1.20
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.6%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
74
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.76
3.43
Stability score
3.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
73
29
Lead Matches
16
79.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.83
21
Trailing Matches
29
33.3%
Non-loss rate
17.2%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
76.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
70
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
11
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.82
1.64
Portability PPG Range
2.11
47.97
Portability Score
37.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO198.9
PPG0.54
GF0.51
GA-0.13
PPG0.50
PPG0.89
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate12.3%
Scored 2+ rate11.2%
Scored 3+ rate17.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.38
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.07
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate16.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score10.04
Rest days-2.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO198.9
Current Opponent ELO-198.9
Current ELO Difference397.8
Expected score0.52
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cardiff

L
Wolves3–0Cardiff31 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 42% · hit
W
Cardiff1–0Birmingham24 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff 44% · hit
D
Middlesbrough2–2Cardiff17 Oct · away
Pick: Middlesbrough 36% · missed
W
Cardiff5–1Watford13 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff 55% · hit
D
Cardiff2–2Sheffield Utd29 Aug · home
Pick: Cardiff 50% · missed

Burnley

D
QPR1–1Burnley3 Nov · away
Pick: QPR 58% · missed
D
Burnley0–0Portsmouth31 Oct · home
Pick: Portsmouth 42% · missed
L
Lincoln4–1Burnley24 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln 43% · hit
L
Burnley1–2Wolves16 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 44% · hit
D
Burnley2–2Charlton13 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton 49% · missed

About this match

Cardiff and Burnley meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Cardiff City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cardiff win 63.4%, draw 22.1%, Burnley win 14.5%. The pick is Cardiff win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.