ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Rasi Salai United vs Bangkok United

Rasi Salai United Home · Elo 1,594
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bangkok United Away · Elo 1,603
Sisaket Provincial Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bangkok United win
Rasi Salai United win
23.0%
Draw
24.2%
Bangkok United winPick
52.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Rasi Salai United history34 matches
Bangkok United history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bangkok United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,594 against 1,603. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Rasi Salai United score more

    1.88 goals a game over 34 matches for Rasi Salai United, against 1.65 over 71 for Bangkok United.

  • Rasi Salai United concede fewer

    Rasi Salai United concede 1.03 a game, Bangkok United 1.15.

  • Rasi Salai United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Rasi Salai United matches, against 52% for Bangkok United. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rasi Salai United
Bangkok United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1593.9
ELO
1602.5
34
ELO · Matches
71
1593.9
Current Team ELO
1602.5
1602.5
Current Opponent ELO
1593.9
-8.68
Current ELO Difference
8.68
0.49
Expected score
0.51
34
History Matches
71
0.13
Residual Mean
0.07
58.39
Overperformance
55.76
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
71
2.09
PPG
1.77
58.8%
Win rate
47.9%
32.4%
Draw rate
33.8%
8.8%
Loss rate
18.3%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
34
2.29
PPG
1.50
70.6%
Win rate
35.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
44.1%
11.8%
Loss rate
20.6%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
17
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.88
Goals for per game
1.65
88.2%
Scoring rate
80.3%
58.8%
BTTS rate
56.3%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.21
88.2%
Scoring rate
67.6%
52.9%
BTTS rate
47.1%
34
History Matches
71
1.88
Goals Mean
1.65
1.05
Goals Std
1.37
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.5%
32.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.5%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
1.15
67.6%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.12
64.7%
Conceding rate
64.7%
34
History Matches
71
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.92
Conceded Std
1.08
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
71
0.81
Result entropy
0.94
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.79
18.86
Stability score
6.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
71
10
Lead Matches
23
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.77
7
Trailing Matches
14
85.7%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
13
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.69
18
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
10
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
—
Portability PPG Std
0.52
—
Portability PPG Range
1.64
—
Portability Score
49.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-8.68
PPG0.31
GF0.23
GA-0.13
PPG0.79
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-37
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-37
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate18.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches-37
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-37
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score12.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-37
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate30.4%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate42.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-37
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-9
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days15.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.64
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.88
Current Team ELO-8.68
Current Opponent ELO8.68
Current ELO Difference-17.36
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-37
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance2.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rasi Salai United

L
Rasi Salai United1–4Ayutthaya FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Rasi Salai United 39% · missed
L
Sukhothai FC5–1Rasi Salai United17 Oct · away
Pick: Sukhothai FC 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bangkok United

D
Prachuap0–0Bangkok United25 Oct · away
Pick: Bangkok United 45% · missed
L
Bangkok United0–2Port FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Bangkok United 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rasi Salai United and Bangkok United meet in Thai League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rasi Salai United win 23.0%, draw 24.2%, Bangkok United win 52.8%. The pick is Bangkok United win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.