ScoreProb
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico Round 11 2026

Real Apodaca vs Dragones de Oaxaca

Real Apodaca Home · Elo 1,605
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dragones de Oaxaca Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Apodaca win
Real Apodaca winPick
59.4%
Draw
23.9%
Dragones de Oaxaca win
16.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%

How much we know

Real Apodaca history26 matches
Dragones de Oaxaca history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Apodaca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Apodaca are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,529. On rating alone Real Apodaca would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Real Apodaca score more

    1.88 goals a game over 26 matches for Real Apodaca, against 1.50 over 12 for Dragones de Oaxaca.

  • Dragones de Oaxaca concede fewer

    Real Apodaca concede 0.81 a game, Dragones de Oaxaca 0.58.

  • Real Apodaca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Real Apodaca matches, against 25% for Dragones de Oaxaca. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Apodaca
Dragones de Oaxaca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.7
ELO
1529.1
26
ELO · Matches
12
1604.7
Current Team ELO
1529.1
1529.1
Current Opponent ELO
1604.7
75.58
Current ELO Difference
-75.58
0.61
Expected score
0.39
26
History Matches
12
0.20
Residual Mean
0.12
61.20
Overperformance
54.46
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
0.60
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
12
2.31
PPG
1.75
73.1%
Win rate
41.7%
11.5%
Draw rate
50.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
8.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
6
2.85
PPG
2.00
92.3%
Win rate
50.0%
7.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
13
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.88
Goals for per game
1.50
84.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
42.3%
BTTS rate
41.7%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
26
History Matches
12
1.88
Goals Mean
1.50
1.19
Goals Std
1.32
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
42.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.81
Goals against per game
0.58
53.8%
Conceding rate
41.7%
0.69
Goals against per game
0.00
53.8%
Conceding rate
0.0%
26
History Matches
12
0.81
Conceded Mean
0.58
0.88
Conceded Std
0.76
23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
58.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
58.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
58.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
12
0.70
Result entropy
0.84
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.38
30.24
Stability score
16.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
12
16
Lead Matches
5
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
3
Trailing Matches
2
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
196.0
Rest days
227.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.17
Portability PPG Std
—
0.35
Portability PPG Range
—
74.19
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO75.58
PPG0.56
GF0.38
GA0.22
PPG0.85
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.54
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate34.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score13.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-31.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.79
Current Team ELO75.58
Current Opponent ELO-75.58
Current ELO Difference151.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Apodaca

L
Halcones Negros1–0Real Apodaca3 Nov · away
Pick: Halcones Negros 34% · hit
L
Real Apodaca1–2Vaqueros Reynosa4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Apodaca 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dragones de Oaxaca

W
Dragones de Oaxaca2–0Mineros de Fresnillo1 Nov · home
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 46% · missed
L
Héroes de Zaci6–0Dragones de Oaxaca25 Oct · away
Pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 42% · missed
D
Artesanos Metepec0–0Dragones de Oaxaca17 Oct · away
Pick: Artesanos Metepec 44% · missed
W
Dragones de Oaxaca5–1Guerreros del Pacifico13 Oct · home
Pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 55% · hit
W
Dragones de Oaxaca3–2Real Refineros4 Oct · home
Pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 55% · hit

About this match

Real Apodaca and Dragones de Oaxaca meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Apodaca win 59.4%, draw 23.9%, Dragones de Oaxaca win 16.8%. The pick is Real Apodaca win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.