Real Soacha vs Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
Postponed
Sun 8 Nov
Was due at 21:00 UTC
Real Cartagena
Match result probability Model pick: Real Soacha win
Real Soacha winPick
46.7%
Draw
24.8%
Real Cartagena win
28.5%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes53.1%
No46.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Real Soacha history64 matches
Real Cartagena history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Real Soacha are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,531 against 1,555. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Real Cartagena score more
1.31 goals a game over 64 matches for Real Soacha, against 1.65 over 55 for Real Cartagena.
-
Real Soacha concede fewer
Real Soacha concede 0.95 a game, Real Cartagena 1.07.
-
Real Cartagena games more often go over 2.5 goals
36% of Real Soacha matches, against 56% for Real Cartagena. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.4
ELO
1555.4
64
ELO · Matches
55
1531.4
Current Team ELO
1555.4
1555.4
Current Opponent ELO
1531.4
-23.97
Current ELO Difference
23.97
0.47
Expected score
0.53
64
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.32
Overperformance
53.62
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
64
Matches
55
1.63
PPG
1.71
45.3%
Win rate
45.5%
26.6%
Draw rate
34.5%
28.1%
Loss rate
20.0%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
35.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
27
1.93
PPG
1.44
56.7%
Win rate
33.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
44.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.65
78.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.22
83.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
36.7%
BTTS rate
59.3%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.70
61.1%
Scoring rate
82.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
69.6%
64
History Matches
55
1.31
Goals Mean
1.65
1.03
Goals Std
1.39
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
35.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.07
59.4%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.11
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.22
83.3%
Conceding rate
78.3%
64
History Matches
55
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.98
Conceded Std
0.99
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
64
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.82
Stability score
4.66
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
64
Eligible Matches
55
27
Lead Matches
20
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
10
45.5%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.96
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
25
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
18
Matches
23
0.94
PPG
1.74
16.7%
Win rate
47.8%
44.4%
Draw rate
30.4%
38.9%
Loss rate
21.7%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
18
Current Competition Matches
23
0.94
Current Competition PPG
1.74
-0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.48
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.31
Portability PPG Range
0.05
51.26
Portability Score
95.55
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
64
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.97
PPG-0.08
GF-0.34
GA-0.12
PPG-0.79
PPG0.49
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score-1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate15.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches-5
Current Competition PPG-0.79
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.76
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.26
Portability Score-44.29
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-23.97
Current Opponent ELO23.97
Current ELO Difference-47.93
Expected score-0.07
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Real Soacha
W
Real Soacha1–0Ind. Yumbo24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Soacha 52% · hit D
Tigres FC0–0Real Soacha20 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres FC 34% · missed D
Real Soacha0–0Bogota FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Real Soacha 46% · missed W
Real Soacha4–1Patriotas29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Soacha 51% · hit L
Orsomarso2–0Real Soacha24 Aug · away
Pick: Orsomarso 36% · hit Real Cartagena
D
Barranquilla1–1Real Cartagena24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Cartagena 41% · missed W
Real Cartagena3–0Patriotas19 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · hit D
Quindio1–1Real Cartagena16 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 45% · missed L
Real Cartagena2–3Popayan4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 52% · missed L
Real Cartagena0–3Tigres FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · missed About this match
Real Soacha and Real Cartagena were due to play in Primera B on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.