ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 18 2026

Redditch United vs Peterborough Sports

Redditch United Home · Elo 1,550
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Peterborough Sports Away · Elo 1,404
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Redditch United win
Redditch United winPick
55.0%
Draw
24.3%
Peterborough Sports win
20.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

Redditch United history69 matches
Peterborough Sports history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Redditch United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Redditch United are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,404. On rating alone Redditch United would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Redditch United score more

    1.42 goals a game over 69 matches for Redditch United, against 1.13 over 78 for Peterborough Sports.

  • Redditch United concede fewer

    Redditch United concede 1.29 a game, Peterborough Sports 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Redditch United matches, against 54% for Peterborough Sports. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Redditch United
Peterborough Sports
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.3
ELO
1404.1
69
ELO · Matches
78
1550.3
Current Team ELO
1404.1
1404.1
Current Opponent ELO
1550.3
146.2
Current ELO Difference
-146.2
0.70
Expected score
0.30
69
History Matches
78
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
52.77
Overperformance
45.67
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.05
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
78
1.42
PPG
1.01
39.1%
Win rate
26.9%
24.6%
Draw rate
20.5%
36.2%
Loss rate
52.6%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
37
1.88
PPG
0.81
55.9%
Win rate
21.6%
20.6%
Draw rate
16.2%
23.5%
Loss rate
62.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
44.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
34
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.13
72.5%
Scoring rate
62.8%
47.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
85.3%
Scoring rate
64.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.1%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
69
History Matches
78
1.42
Goals Mean
1.13
1.36
Goals Std
1.18
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
62.8%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.88
68.1%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
2.30
58.8%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
69
History Matches
78
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.31
Conceded Std
1.72
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.2%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
2.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
78
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.21
1.68
Stability score
7.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
77
22
Lead Matches
16
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
30
35.3%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.24
Rest days
79.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.25
42.67
Portability Score
51.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO146.2
PPG0.41
GF0.29
GA-0.59
PPG0.25
PPG1.07
PPG0.80
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.35
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-5.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate23.9%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate22.0%
Trailing Win Rate11.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-8.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.85
Current Team ELO146.2
Current Opponent ELO-146.2
Current ELO Difference292.5
Expected score0.40
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Redditch United

D
Redditch United3–3Needham Market31 Oct · home
Pick: Redditch United 49% · missed
W
Racing Club Warwick1–2Redditch United27 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 41% · missed
D
Leamington2–2Redditch United13 Oct · away
Pick: Redditch United 45% · missed
W
Redditch United3–1Halesowen Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Redditch United 38% · hit
L
Leiston3–1Redditch United29 Aug · away
Pick: Leiston 51% · hit

Peterborough Sports

W
Leamington2–4Peterborough Sports31 Oct · away
Pick: Leamington 39% · missed
L
Peterborough Sports2–5Leiston27 Oct · home
Pick: Leiston 46% · hit
W
Peterborough Sports4–2Banbury United13 Oct · home
Pick: Peterborough Sports 38% · hit
D
Needham Market3–3Peterborough Sports31 Aug · away
Pick: Needham Market 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Redditch United and Peterborough Sports meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Redditch United win 55.0%, draw 24.3%, Peterborough Sports win 20.7%. The pick is Redditch United win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.