ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

RKAV Volendam vs De Treffers

RKAV Volendam Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
De Treffers Away · Elo 1,621
Hein Koning Stadion, Volendam Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: De Treffers win
RKAV Volendam win
15.0%
Draw
18.0%
De Treffers winPick
67.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%

How much we know

RKAV Volendam history56 matches
De Treffers history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why De Treffers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • De Treffers are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,483. On rating alone De Treffers would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.77 goals a game over 56 matches for RKAV Volendam, against 1.94 over 64 for De Treffers.

  • De Treffers concede fewer

    RKAV Volendam concede 1.98 a game, De Treffers 1.39.

  • RKAV Volendam games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of RKAV Volendam matches, against 64% for De Treffers. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RKAV Volendam
De Treffers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.2
ELO
1621.2
56
ELO · Matches
64
1483.2
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1483.2
-138.0
Current ELO Difference
138.0
0.31
Expected score
0.69
56
History Matches
64
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
48.97
Overperformance
57.82
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.80
3.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
2.20
2.70
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
64
1.30
PPG
1.69
41.1%
Win rate
46.9%
7.1%
Draw rate
28.1%
51.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
48.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.46
PPG
1.79
46.4%
Win rate
55.2%
7.1%
Draw rate
13.8%
46.4%
Loss rate
31.0%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.94
75.0%
Scoring rate
89.1%
62.5%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.86
82.1%
Scoring rate
86.2%
60.7%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
4.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
64
1.77
Goals Mean
1.94
1.49
Goals Std
1.36
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
89.1%
51.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.1%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
1.39
85.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.34
78.6%
Conceding rate
69.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
64
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.43
Conceded Std
1.13
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
35.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
64
0.81
Result entropy
0.96
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.77
18.56
Stability score
3.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
64
18
Lead Matches
25
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
23
Trailing Matches
17
21.7%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
17.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
24
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.01
Portability PPG Range
0.65
51.71
Portability Score
67.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-138.0
PPG-0.38
GF-0.17
GA0.59
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.33
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.59
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate23.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.18
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score14.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate1.8%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate17.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-15.37
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-138.0
Current Opponent ELO138.0
Current ELO Difference-276.0
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RKAV Volendam

W
RKAV Volendam3–0ROHDA Raalte29 Oct · home
Pick: RKAV Volendam 50% · hit
W
Rijnsburgse Boys0–1RKAV Volendam24 Oct · away
Pick: RKAV Volendam 42% · hit
W
RKAV Volendam2–1Sparta Rotterdam II17 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 54% · missed
D
Ijsselmeervogels1–1RKAV Volendam29 Aug · away
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

De Treffers

W
De Treffers1–0Heracles29 Oct · home
Pick: De Treffers 55% · hit
D
De Treffers3–3Sparta Rotterdam II24 Oct · home
Pick: De Treffers 54% · missed
W
Almere City II2–3De Treffers17 Oct · away
Pick: De Treffers 52% · hit
D
De Treffers1–1Rijnsburgse Boys29 Aug · home
Pick: De Treffers 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

RKAV Volendam and De Treffers meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Hein Koning Stadion, Volendam. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: RKAV Volendam win 15.0%, draw 18.0%, De Treffers win 67.0%. The pick is De Treffers win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.