ScoreProb
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay 2026

Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno

Rubio NU Home · Elo 1,528
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportivo Luqueno Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rubio NU win
Rubio NU winPick
42.3%
Draw
26.8%
Sportivo Luqueno win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Rubio NU history48 matches
Sportivo Luqueno history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rubio NU are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rubio NU are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,444. On rating alone Rubio NU would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Rubio NU score more

    1.27 goals a game over 48 matches for Rubio NU, against 1.06 over 64 for Sportivo Luqueno.

  • Rubio NU concede fewer

    Rubio NU concede 0.98 a game, Sportivo Luqueno 1.48.

  • Sportivo Luqueno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Rubio NU matches, against 47% for Sportivo Luqueno. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rubio NU
Sportivo Luqueno
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.8
ELO
1443.6
48
ELO · Matches
64
1527.8
Current Team ELO
1443.6
1443.6
Current Opponent ELO
1527.8
84.20
Current ELO Difference
-84.20
0.62
Expected score
0.38
48
History Matches
64
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.99
Overperformance
46.63
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
64
1.58
PPG
1.02
41.7%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
48.4%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
35.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
33
1.92
PPG
0.94
54.2%
Win rate
21.2%
29.2%
Draw rate
30.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
48.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
24
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.06
68.8%
Scoring rate
64.1%
41.7%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.97
83.3%
Scoring rate
60.6%
45.8%
BTTS rate
48.5%
0.83
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
64
1.27
Goals Mean
1.06
1.24
Goals Std
1.01
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
64.1%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.4%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
4.7%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.48
60.4%
Conceding rate
78.1%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.55
58.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
48
History Matches
64
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.05
Conceded Std
1.20
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.46
1.92
Stability score
4.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
64
13
Lead Matches
13
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.49
12
Trailing Matches
16
50.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.08
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.14
26
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.83
PPG
1.00
16.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.83
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.34
50.33
Portability Score
80.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO84.20
PPG0.57
GF0.21
GA-0.51
PPG-0.17
PPG0.98
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-2.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate30.8%
Lead Points Retention0.36
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-30.21
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.86
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.70
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO84.20
Current Opponent ELO-84.20
Current ELO Difference168.4
Expected score0.24
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rubio NU

W
Sportivo Trinidense2–4Rubio NU30 Oct · away
Pick: Sportivo Trinidense 60% · missed
L
Deportivo Recoleta1–0Rubio NU16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Recoleta 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sportivo Luqueno

L
Sportivo Luqueno0–3Nacional Asuncion31 Oct · home
Pick: Nacional Asuncion 47% · hit
L
Sportivo Luqueno0–2Deportivo Recoleta28 Oct · home
Pick: Sportivo Luqueno 48% · missed
W
Sportivo Luqueno3–2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 Oct · home
Pick: Sportivo Luqueno 48% · hit
L
Sportivo Trinidense3–2Sportivo Luqueno5 Oct · away
Pick: Sportivo Trinidense 57% · hit
L
Nacional Asuncion2–0Sportivo Luqueno24 Aug · away
Pick: Nacional Asuncion 54% · hit

About this match

Rubio NU and Sportivo Luqueno meet in Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rubio NU win 42.3%, draw 26.8%, Sportivo Luqueno win 30.9%. The pick is Rubio NU win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.