ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

Sabadell Home · Elo 1,588
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Sociedad II Away · Elo 1,469
Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sabadell win
Sabadell winPick
41.7%
Draw
30.7%
Real Sociedad II win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Sabadell history72 matches
Real Sociedad II history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sabadell are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sabadell are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,469. On rating alone Sabadell would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Sabadell score more

    1.39 goals a game over 72 matches for Sabadell, against 1.19 over 78 for Real Sociedad II.

  • Sabadell concede fewer

    Sabadell concede 0.81 a game, Real Sociedad II 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Sabadell matches, against 41% for Real Sociedad II. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sabadell
Real Sociedad II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.0
ELO
1468.5
72
ELO · Matches
78
1588.0
Current Team ELO
1468.5
1468.5
Current Opponent ELO
1588.0
119.5
Current ELO Difference
-119.5
0.67
Expected score
0.33
72
History Matches
78
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.04
Overperformance
48.39
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
78
1.65
PPG
1.32
43.1%
Win rate
35.9%
36.1%
Draw rate
24.4%
20.8%
Loss rate
39.7%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
62.8%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
39
1.91
PPG
1.33
51.5%
Win rate
38.5%
36.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
12.1%
Loss rate
43.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.4%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
33
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.19
66.7%
Scoring rate
65.4%
34.7%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.10
72.7%
Scoring rate
64.1%
30.3%
BTTS rate
41.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
78
1.39
Goals Mean
1.19
1.39
Goals Std
1.13
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.19
50.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.18
39.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
78
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.98
Conceded Std
1.17
23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
60.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
60.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
78
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.75
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
78
28
Lead Matches
20
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.90
13
Trailing Matches
17
30.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.10
Rest days
79.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
28
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.50
Portability PPG Range
1.57
72.19
Portability Score
48.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO119.5
PPG0.33
GF0.20
GA-0.39
PPG-0.50
PPG0.58
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate30.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score23.68
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO119.5
Current Opponent ELO-119.5
Current ELO Difference239.0
Expected score0.33
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sabadell

L
Albacete2–1Sabadell31 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete 42% · hit
D
Sabadell1–1Tenerife25 Oct · home
Pick: Tenerife 35% · missed
L
Burgos1–0Sabadell18 Oct · away
Pick: Burgos 37% · hit
W
Sabadell1–0Almeria29 Aug · home
Pick: Almeria 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Sociedad II

W
Real Sociedad II1–0Girona31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad II 49% · hit
L
Las Palmas1–0Real Sociedad II24 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 56% · hit
L
Real Sociedad II2–4Almeria17 Oct · home
Pick: Almeria 41% · hit
L
Real Sociedad II2–3Granada CF4 Oct · home
Pick: Granada CF 40% · hit
D
Burgos2–2Real Sociedad II31 Aug · away
Pick: Burgos 43% · missed

About this match

Sabadell and Real Sociedad II meet in Segunda División on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Sabadell win 41.7%, draw 30.7%, Real Sociedad II win 27.6%. The pick is Sabadell win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.