ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga Georgia Round 32 2026

Saburtalo vs Gagra

Saburtalo Home · Elo 1,613
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gagra Away · Elo 1,510
Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saburtalo win
Saburtalo winPick
62.0%
Draw
22.7%
Gagra win
15.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Saburtalo history85 matches
Gagra history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Saburtalo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saburtalo are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,510. On rating alone Saburtalo would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Saburtalo score more

    1.48 goals a game over 85 matches for Saburtalo, against 1.23 over 66 for Gagra.

  • Saburtalo concede fewer

    Saburtalo concede 1.00 a game, Gagra 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Saburtalo matches, against 52% for Gagra. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saburtalo
Gagra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.1
ELO
1510.2
85
ELO · Matches
66
1613.1
Current Team ELO
1510.2
1510.2
Current Opponent ELO
1613.1
102.9
Current ELO Difference
-102.9
0.64
Expected score
0.36
85
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
55.71
Overperformance
50.35
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
66
1.76
PPG
1.21
50.6%
Win rate
30.3%
24.7%
Draw rate
30.3%
24.7%
Loss rate
39.4%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
35
1.76
PPG
1.37
48.9%
Win rate
37.1%
28.9%
Draw rate
25.7%
22.2%
Loss rate
37.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
45
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.23
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.8%
50.6%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.31
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.3%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.95
85.0%
Scoring rate
68.2%
55.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
85
History Matches
66
1.48
Goals Mean
1.23
1.19
Goals Std
1.07
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.47
61.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.57
62.2%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.36
65.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
85
History Matches
66
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.02
Conceded Std
1.12
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
66
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.69
5.74
Stability score
0.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
63
31
Lead Matches
11
83.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
22
36.4%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.96
Rest days
78.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
1.70
PPG
1.09
50.0%
Win rate
22.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.9%
30.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.70
Current Competition PPG
1.09
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.41
12
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.05
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.11
46.89
Portability Score
90.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO102.9
PPG0.55
GF0.26
GA-0.47
PPG0.61
PPG0.38
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score5.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate13.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.81
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.47
Portability Score-43.99
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO102.9
Current Opponent ELO-102.9
Current ELO Difference205.7
Expected score0.29
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saburtalo

D
Dinamo Tbilisi0–0Saburtalo31 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 36% · missed
W
Saburtalo3–2Torpedo Kutaisi26 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 47% · hit
D
Saburtalo1–1Mjallby AIF22 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 47% · missed
W
Dila0–2Saburtalo19 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 35% · hit
L
St. Truiden2–0Saburtalo15 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 42% · missed

Gagra

D
Gagra2–2Rustavi1 Nov · home
Pick: Rustavi 45% · missed
W
Gagra2–1Rustavi27 Oct · home
Pick: Gagra 40% · hit
D
Spaeri0–0Gagra23 Oct · away
Pick: Spaeri 49% · missed
L
Gagra1–3Dinamo Batumi17 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 44% · hit
W
Gagra2–0Saburtalo31 Aug · home
Pick: Saburtalo 39% · missed

About this match

Saburtalo and Gagra meet in Erovnuli Liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Saburtalo win 62.0%, draw 22.7%, Gagra win 15.3%. The pick is Saburtalo win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.