ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United

Sagamihara Home · Elo 1,531
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kagoshima United Away · Elo 1,564
Sagamihara Gion Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sagamihara win
Sagamihara winPick
37.8%
Draw
27.3%
Kagoshima United win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%

How much we know

Sagamihara history67 matches
Kagoshima United history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sagamihara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kagoshima United are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,531. On rating alone Kagoshima United would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Kagoshima United score more

    1.27 goals a game over 67 matches for Sagamihara, against 1.54 over 67 for Kagoshima United.

  • Kagoshima United concede fewer

    Sagamihara concede 1.37 a game, Kagoshima United 1.01.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Sagamihara matches, against 45% for Kagoshima United. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sagamihara
Kagoshima United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.9
ELO
1564.1
67
ELO · Matches
67
1530.9
Current Team ELO
1564.1
1564.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.9
-33.23
Current ELO Difference
33.23
0.45
Expected score
0.55
67
History Matches
67
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.10
Overperformance
53.45
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.57
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
2.01
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
67
1.43
PPG
1.67
37.3%
Win rate
46.3%
31.3%
Draw rate
28.4%
31.3%
Loss rate
25.4%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.6%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
34
1.57
PPG
1.41
42.9%
Win rate
35.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
35.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
29.4%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.54
74.6%
Scoring rate
74.6%
52.2%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.24
77.1%
Scoring rate
64.7%
48.6%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
67
History Matches
67
1.27
Goals Mean
1.54
1.14
Goals Std
1.41
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.01
68.7%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.03
65.7%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
67
History Matches
67
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.45
Conceded Std
0.92
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.68
0.32
Stability score
3.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
66
21
Lead Matches
18
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
12
18.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
41
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.68
56.49
Portability Score
61.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.23
PPG-0.24
GF-0.27
GA0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate11.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.52
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-3.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-5.04
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-33.23
Current Opponent ELO33.23
Current ELO Difference-66.45
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sagamihara

W
Gainare Tottori0–1Sagamihara3 Nov · away
Pick: Sagamihara 47% · hit
W
Kochi United1–3Sagamihara31 Oct · away
Pick: Sagamihara 56% · hit
D
Sagamihara0–0Tochigi SC24 Oct · home
Pick: Sagamihara 45% · missed
L
FC Gifu2–1Sagamihara21 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 48% · hit
W
Biwako Shiga0–2Sagamihara18 Oct · away
Pick: Sagamihara 47% · hit

Kagoshima United

D
Renofa Yamaguchi1–1Kagoshima United3 Nov · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 48% · missed
D
Kagoshima United1–1Roasso Kumamoto31 Oct · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 54% · missed
L
Osaka2–1Kagoshima United24 Oct · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 40% · missed
W
Kagoshima United3–1Kochi United21 Oct · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 65% · hit
W
Kagoshima United4–2Ehime FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 40% · hit

About this match

Sagamihara and Kagoshima United meet in J3 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Sagamihara Gion Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sagamihara win 37.8%, draw 27.3%, Kagoshima United win 34.9%. The pick is Sagamihara win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.