Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III
Match result probability Model pick: Santurtzi win
Santurtzi winPick
42.3%
Draw
28.3%
Deportivo Alavés III win
29.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
No47.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Santurtzi history49 matches
Deportivo Alavés III history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Santurtzi
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 10:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Santurtzi are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportivo Alavés III are rated 64 Elo points higher
Elo 1,535 against 1,472. On rating alone Deportivo Alavés III would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Deportivo Alavés III score more
1.18 goals a game over 49 matches for Santurtzi, against 1.63 over 48 for Deportivo Alavés III.
-
Defences are close
Santurtzi concede 1.24 a game, Deportivo Alavés III 1.15.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Santurtzi matches, against 48% for Deportivo Alavés III. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Alavés III@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1471.6
ELO
1535.1
49
ELO · Matches
48
1471.6
Current Team ELO
1535.1
1535.1
Current Opponent ELO
1471.6
-63.54
Current ELO Difference
63.54
0.41
Expected score
0.59
49
History Matches
48
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
47.74
Overperformance
52.50
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
48
1.29
PPG
1.58
30.6%
Win rate
43.8%
36.7%
Draw rate
27.1%
32.7%
Loss rate
29.2%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.42
41.7%
Win rate
37.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.63
75.5%
Scoring rate
77.1%
55.1%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.17
79.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
41.7%
49
History Matches
48
1.18
Goals Mean
1.63
1.04
Goals Std
1.42
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.15
69.4%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.25
54.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
48
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.13
Conceded Std
1.00
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
48
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.81
0.26
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
45
11
Lead Matches
12
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
13
35.3%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.74
Rest days
182.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.52
Portability PPG Range
0.41
66.00
Portability Score
70.82
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-63.54
PPG-0.30
GF-0.44
GA0.10
PPG0.17
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.63
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate19.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-4.82
Rest days-97.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-63.54
Current Opponent ELO63.54
Current ELO Difference-127.1
Expected score-0.18
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Santurtzi
W
Santurtzi2–1Amurrio Club25 Oct · home
Pick: Santurtzi 65% · hit L
Eibar III2–1Santurtzi18 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Deportivo Alavés III
W
Deportivo Alavés III3–0San Ignacio31 Oct · home
Pick: San Ignacio 41% · missed D
Real Sociedad III2–2Deportivo Alavés III25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad III 37% · missed D
Deportivo Alavés III2–2Leioa17 Oct · home
Pick: Leioa 43% · missed W
Deportivo Alavés III5–1Sodupe4 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Alavés III 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Santurtzi and Deportivo Alavés III meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Santurtzi win 42.3%, draw 28.3%, Deportivo Alavés III win 29.5%. The pick is Santurtzi win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.