ScoreProb
National League - North England National League North - 16 2026

Scarborough Athletic vs Buxton

Scarborough Athletic Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Buxton Away · Elo 1,576
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Scarborough Athletic win
Scarborough Athletic winPick
41.7%
Draw
27.0%
Buxton win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Scarborough Athletic history77 matches
Buxton history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Scarborough Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Buxton are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,539. On rating alone Buxton would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Buxton score more

    1.39 goals a game over 77 matches for Scarborough Athletic, against 1.77 over 86 for Buxton.

  • Defences are close

    Scarborough Athletic concede 1.17 a game, Buxton 1.24.

  • Buxton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Scarborough Athletic matches, against 63% for Buxton. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scarborough Athletic
Buxton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.4
ELO
1575.6
77
ELO · Matches
86
1539.4
Current Team ELO
1575.6
1575.6
Current Opponent ELO
1539.4
-36.22
Current ELO Difference
36.22
0.45
Expected score
0.55
77
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.68
Overperformance
53.28
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
86
1.51
PPG
1.69
41.6%
Win rate
51.2%
26.0%
Draw rate
15.1%
32.5%
Loss rate
33.7%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
44
1.73
PPG
1.75
48.6%
Win rate
52.3%
27.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
24.3%
Loss rate
29.5%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
37
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.77
74.0%
Scoring rate
87.2%
49.4%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.84
67.6%
Scoring rate
86.4%
32.4%
BTTS rate
59.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
86
1.39
Goals Mean
1.77
1.23
Goals Std
1.35
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.8%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.24
68.8%
Conceding rate
69.8%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.23
51.4%
Conceding rate
70.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
86
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.06
Conceded Std
1.14
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.2%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
86
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.67
Stability score
9.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
85
23
Lead Matches
29
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
22
39.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
76
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.55
Portability PPG Range
2.00
69.23
Portability Score
44.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.22
PPG-0.18
GF-0.38
GA-0.08
PPG0.50
PPG-0.02
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate19.1%
Failed-to-score rate18.8%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-7.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-1.45
Portability Score24.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-36.22
Current Opponent ELO36.22
Current ELO Difference-72.45
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scarborough Athletic

L
Morecambe2–0Scarborough Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 46% · missed
L
Scarborough Athletic1–2Bedford Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 58% · missed
W
Hebburn Town0–2Scarborough Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Hebburn Town 55% · missed
L
King's Lynn Town3–1Scarborough Athletic31 Aug · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 42% · missed
W
Scarborough Athletic5–1Southport29 Aug · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 44% · hit

Buxton

W
Buxton4–2Marine31 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 48% · hit
W
Buxton3–0Harborough Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 41% · hit
W
Chorley2–3Buxton24 Oct · away
Pick: Chorley 44% · missed
D
Buxton2–2Worksop Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 56% · missed
W
Buxton2–1Merthyr Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Buxton 43% · hit

About this match

Scarborough Athletic and Buxton meet in National League - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Scarborough Athletic win 41.7%, draw 27.0%, Buxton win 31.3%. The pick is Scarborough Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.