ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

Schalding-Heining vs 1860 Rosenheim

Schalding-Heining Home · Elo 1,406
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
1860 Rosenheim Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1860 Rosenheim win
Schalding-Heining win
22.6%
Draw
17.8%
1860 Rosenheim winPick
59.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%

How much we know

Schalding-Heining history53 matches
1860 Rosenheim history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why 1860 Rosenheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • 1860 Rosenheim are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,406. On rating alone 1860 Rosenheim would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • 1860 Rosenheim score more

    1.19 goals a game over 53 matches for Schalding-Heining, against 1.50 over 8 for 1860 Rosenheim.

  • 1860 Rosenheim concede fewer

    Schalding-Heining concede 2.02 a game, 1860 Rosenheim 1.13.

  • Schalding-Heining games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Schalding-Heining matches, against 38% for 1860 Rosenheim. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schalding-Heining
1860 Rosenheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1406.1
ELO
1493.9
53
ELO · Matches
8
1406.1
Current Team ELO
1493.9
1493.9
Current Opponent ELO
1406.1
-87.81
Current ELO Difference
87.81
0.38
Expected score
0.62
53
History Matches
8
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.02
43.13
Overperformance
49.50
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
3.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
8
0.60
PPG
1.25
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
3.00
Goals against per game
1.13
10.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.87
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.13
2.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.93
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
8
0.87
PPG
1.25
18.9%
Win rate
25.0%
30.2%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.9%
Loss rate
25.0%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
3
0.96
PPG
0.33
16.7%
Win rate
0.0%
45.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
66.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
24
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.50
67.9%
Scoring rate
62.5%
58.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.57
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
85.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
53
History Matches
8
1.19
Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Goals Std
1.87
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.02
Goals against per game
1.13
86.8%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.67
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.29
Goals against per game
1.29
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
8
2.02
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.55
Conceded Std
0.93
56.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
30.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
8
0.93
Result entropy
0.95
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.34
7.17
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
8
6
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
23
Trailing Matches
1
26.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.96
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.71
PPG
1.00
14.3%
Win rate
14.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
57.1%
57.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.71
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
4
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.41
Portability PPG Std
—
1.13
Portability PPG Range
—
55.14
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-87.81
PPG-0.38
GF-0.31
GA0.89
PPG-0.29
PPG0.63
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.65
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches45
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.67
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches45
Conceded Mean0.89
Conceded Std0.62
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate30.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.88
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.22
History Matches45
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score1.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches22
Non-loss rate26.1%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.14
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-87.81
Current Opponent ELO87.81
Current ELO Difference-175.6
Expected score-0.25
History Matches45
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schalding-Heining

L
Schalding-Heining0–1Ismaning31 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 57% · hit
L
Erlbach2–1Schalding-Heining23 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 71% · hit
L
Schalding-Heining0–2Kirchanschöring17 Oct · home
Pick: Kirchanschöring 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

1860 Rosenheim

W
Schwabmünchen0–21860 Rosenheim31 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 45% · hit
W
1860 Rosenheim2–1TuS Geretsried23 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 49% · hit
D
Heimstetten1–11860 Rosenheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Heimstetten 48% · missed
L
Kirchanschöring3–11860 Rosenheim29 Aug · away
Pick: Kirchanschöring 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schalding-Heining and 1860 Rosenheim meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Schalding-Heining win 22.6%, draw 17.8%, 1860 Rosenheim win 59.6%. The pick is 1860 Rosenheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.2%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.