ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - VFV B Belgium VFV B - 11 2026

Sint-Truiden II vs Wellen

Sint-Truiden II Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wellen Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sint-Truiden II win
Sint-Truiden II winPick
43.9%
Draw
22.7%
Wellen win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%
No37.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Sint-Truiden II history39 matches
Wellen history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sint-Truiden II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,464 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sint-Truiden II score far more

    2.10 goals a game over 39 matches for Sint-Truiden II, against 1.23 over 39 for Wellen.

  • Wellen concede fewer

    Sint-Truiden II concede 2.15 a game, Wellen 1.59.

  • Sint-Truiden II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Sint-Truiden II matches, against 56% for Wellen. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sint-Truiden II
Wellen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.1
ELO
1487.0
39
ELO · Matches
39
1464.1
Current Team ELO
1487.0
1487.0
Current Opponent ELO
1464.1
-22.87
Current ELO Difference
22.87
0.47
Expected score
0.53
39
History Matches
39
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.21
Overperformance
48.74
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
2.90
Goals for per game
1.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
39
1.13
PPG
1.36
28.2%
Win rate
38.5%
28.2%
Draw rate
20.5%
43.6%
Loss rate
41.0%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
56.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
20
1.35
PPG
0.95
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
55.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
85.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
65.0%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.10
Goals for per game
1.23
82.1%
Scoring rate
69.2%
76.9%
BTTS rate
51.3%
2.70
Goals for per game
0.75
90.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
39
History Matches
39
2.10
Goals Mean
1.23
1.88
Goals Std
1.21
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
51.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
2.70
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.15
Goals against per game
1.59
89.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.65
85.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
39
History Matches
39
2.15
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.46
Conceded Std
1.43
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
35.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
2.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
10.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
10.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
10.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
39
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.22
2.07
Stability score
3.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
24
8
Lead Matches
7
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.9
Rest days
195.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.26
96.35
Portability Score
79.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-22.87
PPG-0.23
GF0.87
GA0.56
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.87
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate12.8%
Scored 2+ rate17.9%
Scored 3+ rate23.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-1.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.8%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score16.70
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO-22.87
Current Opponent ELO22.87
Current ELO Difference-45.74
Expected score-0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sint-Truiden II

D
Bocholt0–0Sint-Truiden II31 Oct · away
Pick: Sint-Truiden II 42% · missed
W
Sint-Truiden II7–5Tongeren25 Oct · home
Pick: Sint-Truiden II 48% · hit
W
Hades1–2Sint-Truiden II17 Oct · away
Pick: Hades 42% · missed
L
Rupel Boom2–1Sint-Truiden II4 Oct · away
Pick: Rupel Boom 67% · hit
L
Sint-Truiden II0–5Wilrijk30 Aug · home
Pick: Sint-Truiden II 61% · missed

Wellen

D
Cappellen0–0Wellen31 Oct · away
Pick: Cappellen 49% · missed
L
Wellen1–3Bocholt24 Oct · home
Pick: Wellen 38% · missed
L
Eendracht Termien2–0Wellen16 Oct · away
Pick: Eendracht Termien 50% · hit
W
Wellen1–0Rotselaar29 Aug · home
Pick: Wellen 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sint-Truiden II and Wellen meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sint-Truiden II win 43.9%, draw 22.7%, Wellen win 33.4%. The pick is Sint-Truiden II win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.