ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Sirens vs Vittoriosa Stars

Sirens Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vittoriosa Stars Away · Elo 1,439
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sirens win
Sirens winPick
59.2%
Draw
19.5%
Vittoriosa Stars win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Sirens history33 matches
Vittoriosa Stars history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sirens are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sirens are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,439. On rating alone Sirens would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Sirens score far more

    2.00 goals a game over 33 matches for Sirens, against 1.13 over 23 for Vittoriosa Stars.

  • Defences are close

    Sirens concede 1.67 a game, Vittoriosa Stars 1.57.

  • Sirens games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Sirens matches, against 43% for Vittoriosa Stars. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sirens
Vittoriosa Stars
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.9
ELO
1438.9
33
ELO · Matches
23
1492.9
Current Team ELO
1438.9
1438.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.9
54.02
Current ELO Difference
-54.02
0.58
Expected score
0.42
33
History Matches
23
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.13
49.23
Overperformance
43.17
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
2.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
2.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
23
1.36
PPG
0.91
42.4%
Win rate
21.7%
9.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
48.5%
Loss rate
52.2%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
11
1.06
PPG
1.09
31.3%
Win rate
27.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
27.3%
56.3%
Loss rate
45.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
16
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.13
87.9%
Scoring rate
65.2%
69.7%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.45
93.8%
Scoring rate
72.7%
87.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
33
History Matches
23
2.00
Goals Mean
1.13
1.63
Goals Std
1.08
87.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.57
81.8%
Conceding rate
87.0%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.82
93.8%
Conceding rate
81.8%
33
History Matches
23
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.29
Conceded Std
1.10
51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.1%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
23
0.85
Result entropy
0.93
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.47
15.10
Stability score
7.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
23
16
Lead Matches
5
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.80
8
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
204.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.63
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.59
Portability PPG Range
—
62.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO54.02
PPG0.45
GF0.87
GA0.10
PPG-0.03
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.87
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate22.7%
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate24.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.52
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.82
Stability score8.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.33
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO54.02
Current Opponent ELO-54.02
Current ELO Difference108.0
Expected score0.15
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance6.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sirens

L
Melita3–0Sirens1 Nov · away
Pick: Melita 51% · hit
L
Sirens1–2Tarxien Rainbows24 Oct · home
Pick: Tarxien Rainbows 41% · hit
L
Swieqi United3–2Sirens18 Oct · away
Pick: Swieqi United 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vittoriosa Stars

D
Vittoriosa Stars1–1Zebbug Rangers30 Oct · home
Pick: Vittoriosa Stars 36% · missed
L
Pietà Hotspurs2–0Vittoriosa Stars25 Oct · away
Pick: Pietà Hotspurs 61% · hit
D
Vittoriosa Stars2–2Attard18 Oct · home
Pick: Vittoriosa Stars 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sirens and Vittoriosa Stars meet in Challenge League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sirens win 59.2%, draw 19.5%, Vittoriosa Stars win 21.3%. The pick is Sirens win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.