ScoreProb
U19 League Ukraine Round 13 2026

SK Metalurh U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19

SK Metalurh U19 Home · Elo 1,507
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 Away · Elo 1,679
Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 win
SK Metalurh U19 win
15.2%
Draw
15.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 winPick
69.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%

How much we know

SK Metalurh U19 history3 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:14 UTC
  2. Re-published 9 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Shakhtar Donetsk U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19 are rated 172 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,507. On rating alone Shakhtar Donetsk U19 would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19 score far more

    1.33 goals a game over 3 matches for SK Metalurh U19, against 2.85 over 47 for Shakhtar Donetsk U19.

  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19 concede fewer

    SK Metalurh U19 concede 2.33 a game, Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1.02.

  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of SK Metalurh U19 matches, against 79% for Shakhtar Donetsk U19. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SK Metalurh U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.1
ELO
1678.9
3
ELO · Matches
47
1507.1
Current Team ELO
1678.9
1678.9
Current Opponent ELO
1507.1
-171.9
Current ELO Difference
171.9
0.27
Expected score
0.73
3
History Matches
47
0.10
Residual Mean
0.19
51.26
Overperformance
62.99
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.33
PPG
2.40
1.33
Goals for per game
1.80
2.33
Goals against per game
0.60
33.3%
Win rate
80.0%
3
Matches
10
1.33
PPG
2.40
1.33
Goals for per game
2.20
2.33
Goals against per game
0.90
33.3%
Win rate
80.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
47
1.33
PPG
2.38
33.3%
Win rate
76.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
8.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
14.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
78.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
53.2%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
24
3.00
PPG
2.33
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
8.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
1
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.85
100.0%
Scoring rate
93.6%
100.0%
BTTS rate
55.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
95.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3
History Matches
47
1.33
Goals Mean
2.85
0.47
Goals Std
1.60
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
93.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
85.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
53.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.33
Goals against per game
1.02
100.0%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.29
100.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
2.33
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3
History Matches
47
2.33
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.89
Conceded Std
1.21
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.3%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.63
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.24
0.00
Stability score
36.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
47
1
Lead Matches
24
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.8%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.97
2
Trailing Matches
9
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.72
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.48
0
Long Rest History Matches
22
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.28
—
Portability PPG Range
0.63
—
Portability Score
63.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-171.9
PPG-1.05
GF-1.52
GA1.31
PPG-0.67
PPG0.67
PPG-1.07
PPG-1.07
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-1.52
Goals Std-1.13
Scored 1+ rate6.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.52
Scored 3+ rate-0.53
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean1.31
Conceded Std0.67
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Conceded 2+ rate12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate20.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-44
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-36.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-23
Lead Win Rate-0.96
Lead Points Retention-0.64
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate27.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.98
Long Rest History Matches-22
Current Team ELO-171.9
Current Opponent ELO171.9
Current ELO Difference-343.7
Expected score-0.46
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-11.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SK Metalurh U19

L
Lviv U192–0SK Metalurh U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Lviv U19 40% · hit
L
Livyi Bereh U193–2SK Metalurh U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Livyi Bereh U19 62% · hit
L
SK Metalurh U190–5Oleksandria U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria U19 44% · hit
L
Rukh Vynnyky U196–1SK Metalurh U196 Oct · away
Pick: Rukh Vynnyky U19 78% · hit
L
SK Metalurh U191–5Karpaty Lviv U199 Sep · home
Pick: Karpaty Lviv U19 52% · hit

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

L
Shakhtar Donetsk U191–3Sporting CP U193 Nov · home
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 38% · missed
W
Shakhtar Donetsk U195–1Livyi Bereh U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 61% · hit
L
Internazionale U192–0Shakhtar Donetsk U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 55% · missed
D
Oleksandria U191–1Shakhtar Donetsk U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 55% · missed
L
Shakhtar Donetsk U191–2AEK Athens U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 72% · missed

About this match

SK Metalurh U19 and Shakhtar Donetsk U19 meet in U19 League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC: SK Metalurh U19 win 15.2%, draw 15.2%, Shakhtar Donetsk U19 win 69.6%. The pick is Shakhtar Donetsk U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.2%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.