Sohar vs Bahla
Match result probability Model pick: Sohar win
Sohar winPick
50.6%
Draw
28.7%
Bahla win
20.6%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes50.5%
No49.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%
How much we know
Sohar history45 matches
Bahla history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 15:20 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Sohar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,518 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Bahla score more
1.18 goals a game over 45 matches for Sohar, against 1.32 over 38 for Bahla.
-
Sohar concede fewer
Sohar concede 1.16 a game, Bahla 1.32.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
42% of Sohar matches, against 47% for Bahla. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1517.9
ELO
1494.3
45
ELO · Matches
38
1517.9
Current Team ELO
1494.3
1494.3
Current Opponent ELO
1517.9
23.58
Current ELO Difference
-23.58
0.53
Expected score
0.47
45
History Matches
38
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.51
Overperformance
49.86
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
38
1.44
PPG
1.34
37.8%
Win rate
39.5%
31.1%
Draw rate
15.8%
31.1%
Loss rate
44.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
18
1.52
PPG
1.56
39.1%
Win rate
44.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
23
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.32
75.6%
Scoring rate
71.1%
48.9%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.22
73.9%
Scoring rate
72.2%
47.8%
BTTS rate
44.4%
45
History Matches
38
1.18
Goals Mean
1.32
0.97
Goals Std
1.26
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.32
62.2%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.11
60.9%
Conceding rate
61.1%
45
History Matches
38
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.30
Conceded Std
1.00
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.8%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
38
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.64
0.40
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
38
13
Lead Matches
8
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
9
Trailing Matches
11
22.2%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
165.0
Rest days
165.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.43
51.31
Portability Score
70.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.58
PPG0.10
GF-0.14
GA-0.16
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches7
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-6.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate4.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-18.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO23.58
Current Opponent ELO-23.58
Current ELO Difference47.15
Expected score0.07
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sohar
L
Sohar0–5Al-Shabab19 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Shabab 44% · hit D
Sohar0–0Ibri31 Aug · home
Pick: Sohar 53% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bahla
W
Bahla1–0Al Nasr24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasr 45% · missed W
Oman Club0–1Bahla18 Oct · away
Pick: Oman Club 51% · missed L
Bahla1–3Al Seeb30 Aug · home
Pick: Al Seeb 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sohar and Bahla were due to play in Professional League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.