Sp. Subotica U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U18
Match result probability Model pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 win
Sp. Subotica U19 win
33.5%
Draw
28.2%
Crvena Zvezda U18 winPick
38.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
No48.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
How much we know
Sp. Subotica U19 history1 match
Crvena Zvezda U18 history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Crvena Zvezda U18 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,488 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Crvena Zvezda U18 score more
1.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Sp. Subotica U19, against 1.20 over 10 for Crvena Zvezda U18.
-
Crvena Zvezda U18 concede fewer
Sp. Subotica U19 concede 2.00 a game, Crvena Zvezda U18 1.50.
-
Sp. Subotica U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals
100% of Sp. Subotica U19 matches, against 60% for Crvena Zvezda U18. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crvena Zvezda U18@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1488.2
ELO
1491.1
1
ELO · Matches
10
1488.2
Current Team ELO
1491.1
1491.1
Current Opponent ELO
1488.2
-2.92
Current ELO Difference
2.92
0.50
Expected score
0.50
1
History Matches
10
-0.50
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.62
Overperformance
49.15
-0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
1
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
10
1.00
Goals Mean
1.20
—
Goals Std
1.47
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
10
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.50
—
Conceded Std
1.02
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
10
0.00
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
1.90
100.0
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
9
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
3
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
74.06
Rest days
73.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
6
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.42
—
Portability Score
70.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.92
PPG-1.20
GF-0.20
GA0.50
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.75
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.20
Scored 1+ rate50.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.99
Stability score99.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches-3
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches-6
Current Team ELO-2.92
Current Opponent ELO2.92
Current ELO Difference-5.83
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.47
Overperformance-1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.47
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sp. Subotica U19
W
Sp. Subotica U193–2Partizan U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Sp. Subotica U19 75% · hit L
Sp. Subotica U190–1IMT Novi Beograd U1912 Oct · home
Pick: IMT Novi Beograd U19 42% · hit L
Mladost Lucani U193–2Sp. Subotica U194 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost Lucani U19 73% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Crvena Zvezda U18
W
Bravo U190–1Crvena Zvezda U1828 Oct · away
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 57% · hit W
Crvena Zvezda U182–0Novi Pazar U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 54% · hit W
Jedinstvo U. U190–4Crvena Zvezda U187 Oct · away
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sp. Subotica U19 and Crvena Zvezda U18 were due to play in U19 league on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.