ScoreProb
3. liga - CFL A Czechia Group A - 14 2026

Sparta Praha II vs Aritma Praha

Sparta Praha II Home · Elo 1,444
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aritma Praha Away · Elo 1,539
TCM Strahov, Prague Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aritma Praha win
Sparta Praha II win
28.5%
Draw
26.1%
Aritma Praha winPick
45.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Sparta Praha II history61 matches
Aritma Praha history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aritma Praha are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aritma Praha are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,444. On rating alone Aritma Praha would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Aritma Praha score more

    1.07 goals a game over 61 matches for Sparta Praha II, against 1.53 over 62 for Aritma Praha.

  • Aritma Praha concede fewer

    Sparta Praha II concede 1.49 a game, Aritma Praha 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Sparta Praha II matches, against 48% for Aritma Praha. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Praha II
Aritma Praha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.3
ELO
1538.8
61
ELO · Matches
62
1444.3
Current Team ELO
1538.8
1538.8
Current Opponent ELO
1444.3
-94.54
Current ELO Difference
94.54
0.37
Expected score
0.63
61
History Matches
62
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
47.27
Overperformance
51.86
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
62
1.13
PPG
1.55
31.1%
Win rate
41.9%
19.7%
Draw rate
29.0%
49.2%
Loss rate
29.0%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
33
1.30
PPG
1.33
36.4%
Win rate
33.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
60.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.53
63.9%
Scoring rate
72.6%
45.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.42
63.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.4%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
61
History Matches
62
1.07
Goals Mean
1.53
1.05
Goals Std
1.36
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.6%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.16
75.4%
Conceding rate
66.1%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.24
69.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
61
History Matches
62
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.22
Conceded Std
1.19
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.77
6.05
Stability score
1.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
62
13
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.75
20
Trailing Matches
16
15.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
30
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.97
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.81
0.81
Portability PPG Range
2.33
60.37
Portability Score
38.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.54
PPG-0.42
GF-0.47
GA0.33
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score4.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate15.9%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.52
Portability Score22.15
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-94.54
Current Opponent ELO94.54
Current ELO Difference-189.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Praha II

D
Králův Dvůr1–1Sparta Praha II28 Oct · away
Pick: Králův Dvůr 60% · missed
L
Sparta Praha II0–1Písek25 Oct · home
Pick: Písek 48% · hit
D
Motorlet Praha1–1Sparta Praha II17 Oct · away
Pick: Motorlet Praha 58% · missed
W
Sparta Praha II4–0Příbram II30 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Praha II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aritma Praha

L
Písek4–2Aritma Praha30 Oct · away
Pick: Písek 46% · hit
D
Aritma Praha0–0Dukla Praha II24 Oct · home
Pick: Aritma Praha 63% · missed
L
Viktoria Plzeň II3–0Aritma Praha18 Oct · away
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň II 53% · hit
L
Aritma Praha0–2Králův Dvůr29 Aug · home
Pick: Králův Dvůr 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sparta Praha II and Aritma Praha meet in 3. liga - CFL A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. The match is played at TCM Strahov, Prague. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sparta Praha II win 28.5%, draw 26.1%, Aritma Praha win 45.4%. The pick is Aritma Praha win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.