ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca

Sport Boys Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
UTC Cajamarca Away · Elo 1,435
Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sport Boys win
Sport Boys winPick
54.5%
Draw
24.5%
UTC Cajamarca win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Sport Boys history56 matches
UTC Cajamarca history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sport Boys are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sport Boys are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,435. On rating alone Sport Boys would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 56 matches for Sport Boys, against 1.12 over 57 for UTC Cajamarca.

  • Sport Boys concede fewer

    Sport Boys concede 1.27 a game, UTC Cajamarca 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Sport Boys matches, against 51% for UTC Cajamarca. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sport Boys
UTC Cajamarca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.6
ELO
1435.0
56
ELO · Matches
57
1498.6
Current Team ELO
1435.0
1435.0
Current Opponent ELO
1498.6
63.58
Current ELO Difference
-63.58
0.59
Expected score
0.41
56
History Matches
57
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.29
Overperformance
46.60
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
57
1.20
PPG
1.00
30.4%
Win rate
22.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
31.6%
41.1%
Loss rate
45.6%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.2%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.52
PPG
0.73
41.4%
Win rate
15.4%
27.6%
Draw rate
26.9%
31.0%
Loss rate
57.7%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.12
67.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.2%
BTTS rate
56.1%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.08
72.4%
Scoring rate
69.2%
48.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.14
65.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
56
History Matches
57
1.18
Goals Mean
1.12
1.17
Goals Std
1.04
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.49
73.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.92
69.0%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.64
60.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
56
History Matches
57
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.03
Conceded Std
1.06
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.46
1.21
Stability score
3.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
11
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.76
18
Trailing Matches
21
27.8%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.10
Rest days
75.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
31
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
1.25
PPG
0.91
30.0%
Win rate
18.2%
35.0%
Draw rate
36.4%
35.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.91
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.09
46.77
Portability Score
49.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO63.58
PPG0.20
GF0.06
GA-0.22
PPG0.34
PPG0.79
PPG1.80
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-2.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate4.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.34
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-2.80
Rest days2.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO63.58
Current Opponent ELO-63.58
Current ELO Difference127.2
Expected score0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sport Boys

W
Cusco0–1Sport Boys1 Nov · away
Pick: Cusco 43% · missed
W
Sport Boys4–2FC Cajamarca25 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Boys 52% · hit
L
Juan Pablo II College2–0Sport Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Boys 39% · missed
W
Sport Boys1–0Sporting Cristal30 Aug · home
Pick: Sport Boys 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UTC Cajamarca

L
UTC Cajamarca2–3Deportivo Garcilaso2 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 39% · hit
L
UTC Cajamarca1–2FBC Melgar23 Oct · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · hit
L
Cienciano1–0UTC Cajamarca18 Oct · away
Pick: Cienciano 56% · hit
L
UTC Cajamarca2–4Universitario29 Aug · home
Pick: Universitario 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sport Boys win 54.5%, draw 24.5%, UTC Cajamarca win 21.0%. The pick is Sport Boys win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.